Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.03.007 |
Future agricultural phosphorus demand according to the shared socioeconomic pathways | |
Mogollon, J. M.1,3; Beusen, A. H. W.1,2; van Grinsven, H. J. M.2; Westhoek, H.2; Bouwman, A. F.1,2 | |
2018-05-01 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS
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ISSN | 0959-3780 |
EISSN | 1872-9495 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 50页码:149-163 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Netherlands |
英文摘要 | A spatially explicit, two-pool soil phosphorus (P) model was used to analyze cropland P dynamics and fertilizer demand based on future crop production as projected in the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The model was initialized with historical data on P inputs and uptake, which governed the soil P accumulation up to present day. In contrast to existing scenario studies, the model accounts for both soil characteristics relevant to P retention and changing land use. At the global scale, crop uptake and the fraction of the applied P fertilizer that is directly taken up by plant roots govern the P quantities present in the soil. Despite the differences in the storylines among the SSPs, the quantitative implementation results in estimates for crop production and P inputs that are quite similar, which contrasts with the stark divergence in terms of population and incomes. In addition to global fertilizer P inputs in croplands increasing from 14.5 Tg P yr(-1) in 2005 to 22-27 Tg P yr(-1) in 2050, this study also estimates that 4-12 Tg P yr(-1) would be needed in 2050 in global intensively managed grasslands to maintain fertility. Our new model approach can pinpoint the contribution of area expansion and crop yield improvement toward the total production, whereby the latter is shown to contribute 100% to 69%, depending on the scenario. |
英文关键词 | Crop uptake Fertilizer Manure Phosphorus Shared socioeconomic pathways Soil phosphorus pools |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000436223800013 |
WOS关键词 | SOIL-PHOSPHORUS ; 20TH-CENTURY ; RETENTION ; DYNAMICS ; NITROGEN ; CROPLAND |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Geography |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geography |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/38007 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Utrecht, Fac Geosci, Dept Earth Sci Geochem, POB 80021, NL-3508 TA Utrecht, Netherlands; 2.PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, POB 30314, NL-2500 GH The Hague, Netherlands; 3.Leiden Univ, CML Inst Environm Sci, POB 9518, NL-2300 RA Leiden, Netherlands |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Mogollon, J. M.,Beusen, A. H. W.,van Grinsven, H. J. M.,et al. Future agricultural phosphorus demand according to the shared socioeconomic pathways[J]. GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS,2018,50:149-163. |
APA | Mogollon, J. M.,Beusen, A. H. W.,van Grinsven, H. J. M.,Westhoek, H.,&Bouwman, A. F..(2018).Future agricultural phosphorus demand according to the shared socioeconomic pathways.GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS,50,149-163. |
MLA | Mogollon, J. M.,et al."Future agricultural phosphorus demand according to the shared socioeconomic pathways".GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS 50(2018):149-163. |
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