Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.atmosres.2016.10.019 |
Rainfall model investigation and scenario analyses of the effect of government reforestation policy on seasonal rainfalls: A case study from Northern Thailand | |
Duangdai, Eakkapong; Likasiri, Chulin | |
2017-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH |
ISSN | 0169-8095 |
EISSN | 1873-2895 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 185页码:43477 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Thailand |
英文摘要 | In this work, 4 models for predicting rainfall amounts are investigated and compared using Northern Thailand's seasonal rainfall data for 1973-2008. Two models, global temperature, forest area and seasonal rainfall (TFR) and modified TFR based on a system of differential equations, give the relationships between global temperature, Northern Thailand's forest cover and seasonal rainfalls in the region. The other two models studied are time series and Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) models. All models are validated using the k-fold cross validation method with the resulting errors being 0.971233, 0.740891, 2.376415 and 2.430891 for time series, ARMA, TFR and modified TFR models, respectively. Under Business as Usual (BaU) scenario, seasonal rainfalls in Northern Thailand are projected through the year 2020 using all 4 models. TFR and modified TFR models are also used to further analyze how global temperature rise and government reforestation policy affect seasonal rainfalls in the region. Rainfall projections obtained via the two models are also compared with those from the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) under IS92a scenario. Results obtained through a mathematical model for global temperature, forest area and seasonal rainfall show that the higher the forest cover, the less fluctuation there is between rainy-season and summer rainfalls. Moreover, growth in forest cover also correlates with an increase in summer rainfalls. An investigation into the relationship between main crop productions and rainfalls in dry and rainy seasons indicates that if the rainy-season rainfall is high, that year's main-crop rice production will decrease but the second-crop rice, maize, sugarcane and soybean productions will increase in the following year. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
英文关键词 | Time series model ARMA model System of differential equations model Scenario analysis Seasonal rainfalls Forest area |
领域 | 地球科学 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000390737800001 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; IMPACT ; FOREST ; CARBON ; PREDICTION ; EMISSION ; BALANCE |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/37965 |
专题 | 地球科学 |
作者单位 | Chiang Mai Univ, Dept Math, Fac Sci, Chiang Mai 50200, Thailand |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Duangdai, Eakkapong,Likasiri, Chulin. Rainfall model investigation and scenario analyses of the effect of government reforestation policy on seasonal rainfalls: A case study from Northern Thailand[J]. ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,2017,185:43477. |
APA | Duangdai, Eakkapong,&Likasiri, Chulin.(2017).Rainfall model investigation and scenario analyses of the effect of government reforestation policy on seasonal rainfalls: A case study from Northern Thailand.ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,185,43477. |
MLA | Duangdai, Eakkapong,et al."Rainfall model investigation and scenario analyses of the effect of government reforestation policy on seasonal rainfalls: A case study from Northern Thailand".ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH 185(2017):43477. |
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