GSTDTAP  > 地球科学
DOI10.1016/j.atmosres.2016.10.019
Rainfall model investigation and scenario analyses of the effect of government reforestation policy on seasonal rainfalls: A case study from Northern Thailand
Duangdai, Eakkapong; Likasiri, Chulin
2017-03-01
发表期刊ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
ISSN0169-8095
EISSN1873-2895
出版年2017
卷号185页码:43477
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Thailand
英文摘要

In this work, 4 models for predicting rainfall amounts are investigated and compared using Northern Thailand's seasonal rainfall data for 1973-2008. Two models, global temperature, forest area and seasonal rainfall (TFR) and modified TFR based on a system of differential equations, give the relationships between global temperature, Northern Thailand's forest cover and seasonal rainfalls in the region. The other two models studied are time series and Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) models. All models are validated using the k-fold cross validation method with the resulting errors being 0.971233, 0.740891, 2.376415 and 2.430891 for time series, ARMA, TFR and modified TFR models, respectively. Under Business as Usual (BaU) scenario, seasonal rainfalls in Northern Thailand are projected through the year 2020 using all 4 models. TFR and modified TFR models are also used to further analyze how global temperature rise and government reforestation policy affect seasonal rainfalls in the region. Rainfall projections obtained via the two models are also compared with those from the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) under IS92a scenario. Results obtained through a mathematical model for global temperature, forest area and seasonal rainfall show that the higher the forest cover, the less fluctuation there is between rainy-season and summer rainfalls. Moreover, growth in forest cover also correlates with an increase in summer rainfalls. An investigation into the relationship between main crop productions and rainfalls in dry and rainy seasons indicates that if the rainy-season rainfall is high, that year's main-crop rice production will decrease but the second-crop rice, maize, sugarcane and soybean productions will increase in the following year. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.


英文关键词Time series model ARMA model System of differential equations model Scenario analysis Seasonal rainfalls Forest area
领域地球科学
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000390737800001
WOS关键词CLIMATE-CHANGE ; IMPACT ; FOREST ; CARBON ; PREDICTION ; EMISSION ; BALANCE
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/37965
专题地球科学
作者单位Chiang Mai Univ, Dept Math, Fac Sci, Chiang Mai 50200, Thailand
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Duangdai, Eakkapong,Likasiri, Chulin. Rainfall model investigation and scenario analyses of the effect of government reforestation policy on seasonal rainfalls: A case study from Northern Thailand[J]. ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,2017,185:43477.
APA Duangdai, Eakkapong,&Likasiri, Chulin.(2017).Rainfall model investigation and scenario analyses of the effect of government reforestation policy on seasonal rainfalls: A case study from Northern Thailand.ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,185,43477.
MLA Duangdai, Eakkapong,et al."Rainfall model investigation and scenario analyses of the effect of government reforestation policy on seasonal rainfalls: A case study from Northern Thailand".ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH 185(2017):43477.
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