Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.01.009 |
Future risk assessment by estimating historical heat wave trends with projected heat accumulation using SimCLIM climate model in Pakistan | |
Nasim, Wajid1,2,3; Amin, Asad1; Fahad, Shah4,5; Awais, Muhammad6; Khan, Naeem7; Mubeen, Muhammad1; Wahid, Abdul8; Rehman, Muhammad Habibur9; Ihsan, Muhammad Zahid10; Ahmad, Shakeel11; Hussain, Sajjad11; Mian, Ishaq Alunad12; Khan, Bushra13; Jamal, Yousaf4 | |
2018-06-01 | |
发表期刊 | ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
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ISSN | 0169-8095 |
EISSN | 1873-2895 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 205页码:118-133 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Pakistan; France; Australia; Peoples R China; USA |
英文摘要 | Climate change has adverse effects at global, regional and local level. Heat wave events have serious contribution for global warming and natural hazards in Pakistan. Historical (1997-2015) heat wave were analyzed over different provinces (Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan) of Pakistan to identify the maximum temperature trend. Heat accumulation in Pakistan were simulated by the General Circulation Model (GCM) combined with 3 GHG (Green House Gases) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (RCP-4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) by using SimCLIM model (statistical downscaling model for future trend projections). Heat accumulation was projected for year 2030, 2060, and 2090 for seasonal and annual analysis in Pakistan. Heat accumulation were projected to increase by the baseline year (1995) was represented in percentage change. Projection shows that Sindh and southern Punjab was mostly affected by heat accumulation. This study identified the rising trend of heat wave over the period (1997-2015) for Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan (provinces of Pakistan), which identified that most of the meteorological stations in Punjab and Sindh are highly prone to heat waves. According to model projection; future trend of annual heat accumulation, in 2030 was increased 17%, 26%, and 32% but for 2060 the trends were reported by 54%, 49%, and 86% for 2090 showed highest upto 62%, 75%, and 140% for RCP-4.5, RCP-6.0, and RCP-8.5, respectively. While seasonal trends of heat accumulation were projected to maximum values for monsoon and followed by pre-monsoon and post monsoon. Heat accumulation in monsoon may affect the agricultural activities in the region under study. |
英文关键词 | GCMs Risk Annual Seasonal RCPs Simulation Climate change |
领域 | 地球科学 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000429512200012 |
WOS关键词 | SUNFLOWER HYBRIDS ; PRECIPITATION ; TEMPERATURE ; EXTREMES ; ENSEMBLE ; IMPACTS ; INDEXES ; MAXIMUM ; PUNJAB ; CHINA |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/37954 |
专题 | 地球科学 |
作者单位 | 1.COMSATS Inst Informat Technol, Dept Environm Sci, Vehari 61100, Pakistan; 2.IAMM, CIHEAM, F-34090 Montpellier, France; 3.CSIRO Ecosyst Sci & Sustainable Agr Flagship, Toowoomba, Qld 4350, Australia; 4.Univ Swabi, Dept Agr, Swabi, Pakistan; 5.Huazhong Agr Univ, Coll Plant Sci & Technol, Wuhan, Hubei, Peoples R China; 6.Islamia Univ, Dept Agron, Bahawalpur, Pakistan; 7.Univ Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA; 8.Bahauddin Zakariya Univ, Dept Environm Sci, Multan, Pakistan; 9.Muhammad Nawaz Shareef Univ Agr, Dept Agron, Multan, Pakistan; 10.Islamia Univ, Cholestan Inst Desert Studies, Bahawalpur, Pakistan; 11.Bahauddin Zakariya Univ, Multan, Pakistan; 12.Univ Agr, Dept Soil & Environm Sci, Peshawar, Pakistan; 13.Univ Peshawar, Dept Environm Sci, Peshawar, Pakistan |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Nasim, Wajid,Amin, Asad,Fahad, Shah,et al. Future risk assessment by estimating historical heat wave trends with projected heat accumulation using SimCLIM climate model in Pakistan[J]. ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,2018,205:118-133. |
APA | Nasim, Wajid.,Amin, Asad.,Fahad, Shah.,Awais, Muhammad.,Khan, Naeem.,...&Jamal, Yousaf.(2018).Future risk assessment by estimating historical heat wave trends with projected heat accumulation using SimCLIM climate model in Pakistan.ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,205,118-133. |
MLA | Nasim, Wajid,et al."Future risk assessment by estimating historical heat wave trends with projected heat accumulation using SimCLIM climate model in Pakistan".ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH 205(2018):118-133. |
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