GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.03.009
Comparing future patterns of energy system change in 2 degrees C scenarios to expert projections
van Sluisveld, Mariesse A. E.1,2; Harmsen, Mathijs J. H. M.1,2; van Vuuren, Detlef P.1,2; Bosetti, Valentina3,4; Wilson, Charlie5; van der Zwaan, Bob6,7,8
2018-05-01
发表期刊GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS
ISSN0959-3780
EISSN1872-9495
出版年2018
卷号50页码:201-211
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Netherlands; Italy; England
英文摘要

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are computer-based instruments used to assess the implications of human activity on the human and earth system. They are simultaneously also used to explore possible response strategies to climate change. As IAMs operate simplified representations of real-world processes within their model structures, they have been frequently criticised to insufficiently represent the opportunities and challenges in future energy systems over time. To test whether projections by IAMB diverge in systematic ways from projections made by technology experts we elicited expert opinion on prospective change for two indicators and compared these with the outcomes of IAM studies. We specifically focused on five (energy) technology families (solar, wind, biomass, nuclear, and carbon capture and storage or CCS) and compared the considered implications of the presence or absence of climate policy on the growth and diffusion of these technologies over the short (2030) to medium (2050) term. IAMs and experts were found to be in relatively high agreement on system change in a business-as-usual scenario, albeit with significant differences in the estimated magnitude of technology deployment over time. Under stringent climate policy assumptions, such as the internationally agreed upon objective to limit global mean temperature increase to no more than 2 degrees C, we found that the differences in estimated magnitudes became smaller for some technologies and larger for others. Compared to experts, IAM simulations projected a greater reliance on nuclear power and CCS to meet a 2 degrees C climate target. In contrast, experts projected a stronger growth in renewable energy technologies, particularly solar power. We close by discussing several factors that are considered influential to the alignment of the IAM and expert perspectives in this study.


英文关键词Technology diffusion Integrated assessment Climate change 2 degrees Expert elicitation
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号WOS:000436223800017
WOS关键词INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELS ; RD-AND-D ; CLIMATE ; ELICITATION ; PROBABILITIES ; POWER ; COST
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Geography
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geography
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/37868
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Univ Utrecht, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, Utrecht, Netherlands;
2.PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, The Hague, Netherlands;
3.Bocconi Univ, Econ Dept, Milan, Italy;
4.FEEM, Milan, Italy;
5.Univ East Anglia, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich, Norfolk, England;
6.Energy Res Ctr Netherlands ECN, Policy Studies, Amsterdam, Netherlands;
7.Univ Amsterdam, Fac Sci HIMS, Amsterdam, Netherlands;
8.Johns Hopkins Univ, SAIS, Bologna, Italy
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GB/T 7714
van Sluisveld, Mariesse A. E.,Harmsen, Mathijs J. H. M.,van Vuuren, Detlef P.,et al. Comparing future patterns of energy system change in 2 degrees C scenarios to expert projections[J]. GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS,2018,50:201-211.
APA van Sluisveld, Mariesse A. E.,Harmsen, Mathijs J. H. M.,van Vuuren, Detlef P.,Bosetti, Valentina,Wilson, Charlie,&van der Zwaan, Bob.(2018).Comparing future patterns of energy system change in 2 degrees C scenarios to expert projections.GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS,50,201-211.
MLA van Sluisveld, Mariesse A. E.,et al."Comparing future patterns of energy system change in 2 degrees C scenarios to expert projections".GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS 50(2018):201-211.
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