GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.11.008
Extrapolation or saturation - Revisiting growth patterns, development stages and decoupling
Bleischwitz, Raimund1; Nechifor, Victor1; Winning, Matthew1; Huang, Beijia2; Geng, Yong3
2018
发表期刊GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS
ISSN0959-3780
EISSN1872-9495
出版年2018
卷号48页码:86-96
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家England; Peoples R China
英文摘要

The contemporary debate considering the use of natural resources in economic growth centres around the concept of 'decoupling' driven through improvements in resource efficiency. Many studies extrapolate future demand from a short time series of previous years. However, we believe there should be greater attention on the underlying demand assumptions and the possibility of long-term changes. Accordingly, this paper is concerned with a potential saturation in material use as a result of countries moving through stages of development over decades from early industrialisation, over mass production and into a mature stage. An observation of such saturation is relevant for global environmental change as future demand for resources could be lower than currently expected, leading to less associated environmental pressures. In particular, emerging economies are undergoing changing growth patterns, and their future resource use may be significantly lower than contemporary analysis suggests.


This paper combines the analytical strands of resource economics and material flow analysis. It investigates both material-specific demand and stock build-up trends over an extended time horizon of a century. Four materials (steel, cement, aluminium and copper) are analysed applying an indicator called 'Apparent Domestic Consumption' (ADC) and using international trade data for four industrialised countries (Germany, Japan, UK, USA) together with China as the most preeminent emerging economy.


Our results confirm the occurrence of a saturation effect for most materials considered. While the evidence is strong for the per capita apparent consumption of steel, copper and cement in the four industrialised countries, it is somewhat weaker for aluminium. Also, such saturation in material use can start at different income levels, with the saturation beginning to occur relatively early for steel and cement ($12,000 GDP/capita) and later for copper ($20,000 GDP/capita). The results suggest a time gap of around thirty + years from the take-off of large-scale adoption of one type of material and any saturation occurring. We also shed light on the build-up of stocks in the economy, where our findings suggest there is a delayed saturation of at least twenty years compared to apparent consumption depending on the lifetimes of capital goods.


With regard to China, a demand saturation for steel and copper has already started to occur, and our analysis suggests such saturation will soon take place for cement. These findings provide a more moderate outlook on China's future material demand compared to an extrapolation of recent dynamics.


Our new insights on the nexus between economic growth, development stages and the use of natural resources have implications for the decoupling debate and for investments into commodities. From a wider environmental policy perspective, one may expect China and other emerging economies to achieve a saturation effect soon and therefore also peak their industrial emissions of greenhouse gases, supporting the nationally determined contribution (NDC) to the Paris Agreement on Climate Change.


英文关键词Saturation Intensity of use hypothesis Materials Decoupling Anthropogenic stocks Growth Development
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号WOS:000429399000009
WOS关键词IN-USE STOCKS ; STEEL DEMAND ; RESOURCE USE ; EFFICIENCY ; INTENSITY ; EMISSIONS ; FOOTPRINT ; COPPER ; TRENDS ; CHINA
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Geography
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geography
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/37840
专题气候变化
作者单位1.UCL, Inst Sustainable Resources, Cent House,14 Upper Woburn Pl, London WC1H 0NN, England;
2.USST, Dept Environm Engn, Shanghai, Peoples R China;
3.Shanghai Jiao Tong Univ, Dept Environm Sci, Environm Sci Bldg,800 Dongchuan Rd, Shanghai 200240, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Bleischwitz, Raimund,Nechifor, Victor,Winning, Matthew,et al. Extrapolation or saturation - Revisiting growth patterns, development stages and decoupling[J]. GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS,2018,48:86-96.
APA Bleischwitz, Raimund,Nechifor, Victor,Winning, Matthew,Huang, Beijia,&Geng, Yong.(2018).Extrapolation or saturation - Revisiting growth patterns, development stages and decoupling.GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS,48,86-96.
MLA Bleischwitz, Raimund,et al."Extrapolation or saturation - Revisiting growth patterns, development stages and decoupling".GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS 48(2018):86-96.
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