Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.04.001 |
Land use projections in China under global socioeconomic and emission scenarios: Utilizing a scenario-based land-use change assessment framework | |
Dong, Na1; You, Lan2; Cai, Wenjia5; Li, Gang1; Lin, Hui1,3,4 | |
2018-05-01 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS |
ISSN | 0959-3780 |
EISSN | 1872-9495 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 50页码:164-177 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | Land-use changes under the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) have been analyzed globally, but how regional and national land use respond to the global mitigation policies is seldom explored, which poses difficulties in regional environmental adaptation and decision-making. China, as a major food consuming and biofuel production country, would suffer great uncertainties in future land-use dynamics under the global scenarios. Here, we present a scenario-based land-use change assessment framework, integrating Global Change Assessment Model and Future Land Use Simulation Model, to evaluate the potential land use projections of China from 2010 to 2100. Eight scenarios with different combinations of SSPs and radiative forcing targets of RCPs are designed, to analyze the impacts of the global socioeconomic and emission assumptions on regional mitigations and land-use changes. We recalibrated the historical land use data and urban dynamics of China to improve the consistency of modeling results with the actual regional changes. Meanwhile, differences in land use dynamics are demonstrated by spatial downscaling, which are jointly affected by the global assumptions and local driving factors, showing a fierce competition between the crop and forest. We find that the regional crop changes are sensitive to the socioeconomic dynamics as well as the bioenergy production, while different carbon regimes drive the forest changes in unexpected ways. Besides, overall heterogeneous landscape patterns and similar spatial suitability maps are found in distributions of land-use change between the emission and socioeconomic scenarios. The results indicate that this framework embedded with the consideration of anthropogenic managements as well as the detailed interactions of local environments provides an effective way to investigate regional land use response to a range of alternative future pathways. |
英文关键词 | Land use GCAM Scenarios SSP Emission Climate mitigation |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000436223800014 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE RESEARCH ; FORE-SCE MODEL ; COVER CHANGE ; SPATIAL-PATTERN ; ECONOMIC-GROWTH ; FUTURE ; URBAN ; VALIDATION ; MITIGATION ; DYNAMICS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Geography |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geography |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/37827 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Chinese Univ Hong Kong, Inst Space & Earth Informat Sci, Shatin, Hong Kong, Peoples R China; 2.Hubei Univ, Fac Comp Sci & Informat Engn, 368 Youyi Ave, Wuhan 430062, Hubei, Peoples R China; 3.Chinese Univ Hong Kong, Dept Geog & Resource Management, Shatin, Hong Kong, Peoples R China; 4.Chinese Univ Hong Kong, Shenzhen Res Inst, 10,2nd Yuexing Rd, Shenzhen 518057, Peoples R China; 5.Tsinghua Univ, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Minist Educ, Key Lab Earth Syst Modeling, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Dong, Na,You, Lan,Cai, Wenjia,et al. Land use projections in China under global socioeconomic and emission scenarios: Utilizing a scenario-based land-use change assessment framework[J]. GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS,2018,50:164-177. |
APA | Dong, Na,You, Lan,Cai, Wenjia,Li, Gang,&Lin, Hui.(2018).Land use projections in China under global socioeconomic and emission scenarios: Utilizing a scenario-based land-use change assessment framework.GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS,50,164-177. |
MLA | Dong, Na,et al."Land use projections in China under global socioeconomic and emission scenarios: Utilizing a scenario-based land-use change assessment framework".GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS 50(2018):164-177. |
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