GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.12.007
Understanding scientists' computational modeling decisions about climate risk management strategies using values-informed mental models
Mayer, Lauren A.1; Loa, Kathleen1; Cwik, Bryan2; Tuana, Nancy3; Keller, Klaus4,5; Gonnerman, Chad6; Parker, Andrew M.1; Lempert, Robert J.1
2017
发表期刊GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS
ISSN0959-3780
EISSN1872-9495
出版年2017
卷号42
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
英文摘要

When developing computational models to analyze the tradeoffs between climate risk management strategies (i.e., mitigation, adaptation, or geoengineering), scientists make explicit and implicit decisions that are influenced by their beliefs, values and preferences. Model descriptions typically include only the explicit decisions and are silent on value judgments that may explain these decisions. Eliciting scientists' mental models, a systematic approach to determining how they think about climate risk management, can help to gain a clearer understanding of their modeling decisions. In order to identify and represent the role of values, beliefs and preferences on decisions, we used an augmented mental models research approach, namely values-informed mental models (ViMM). We conducted and qualitatively analyzed interviews with eleven climate risk management scientists. Our results suggest that these scientists use a similar decision framework to each other to think about modeling climate risk management tradeoffs, including eight specific decisions ranging from defining the model objectives to evaluating the model's results. The influence of values on these decisions varied between our scientists and between the specific decisions. For instance, scientists invoked ethical values (e.g., concerns about human welfare) when defining objectives, but epistemic values (e.g., concerns about model consistency) were more influential when evaluating model results. ViMM can (i) enable insights that can inform the design of new computational models and (ii) make value judgments explicit and more inclusive of relevant values. This transparency can help model users to better discern the relevance of model results to their own decision framing and concerns. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.


英文关键词Values-informed mental models Climate change Risk management Decision making under uncertainty
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号WOS:000394634500010
WOS关键词ELECTRICITY PORTFOLIOS ; UNCERTAINTY ; THRESHOLDS ; ECONOMICS
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Geography
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geography
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/37802
专题气候变化
作者单位1.RAND Corp, 4570 Fifth Ave Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA;
2.Portland State Univ, Philosophy & Univ Studies, Portland, OR 97207 USA;
3.Penn State Univ, Dept Philosophy, University Pk, PA 16802 USA;
4.Penn State Univ, Dept Geosci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA;
5.Carnegie Mellon Univ, Dept Engn & Publ Policy, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA;
6.Univ Southern Indiana, Dept Philosophy, Evansville, IN USA
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GB/T 7714
Mayer, Lauren A.,Loa, Kathleen,Cwik, Bryan,et al. Understanding scientists' computational modeling decisions about climate risk management strategies using values-informed mental models[J]. GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS,2017,42.
APA Mayer, Lauren A..,Loa, Kathleen.,Cwik, Bryan.,Tuana, Nancy.,Keller, Klaus.,...&Lempert, Robert J..(2017).Understanding scientists' computational modeling decisions about climate risk management strategies using values-informed mental models.GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS,42.
MLA Mayer, Lauren A.,et al."Understanding scientists' computational modeling decisions about climate risk management strategies using values-informed mental models".GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS 42(2017).
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