Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.12.007 |
Understanding scientists' computational modeling decisions about climate risk management strategies using values-informed mental models | |
Mayer, Lauren A.1; Loa, Kathleen1; Cwik, Bryan2; Tuana, Nancy3; Keller, Klaus4,5; Gonnerman, Chad6; Parker, Andrew M.1; Lempert, Robert J.1 | |
2017 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS
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ISSN | 0959-3780 |
EISSN | 1872-9495 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 42 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | When developing computational models to analyze the tradeoffs between climate risk management strategies (i.e., mitigation, adaptation, or geoengineering), scientists make explicit and implicit decisions that are influenced by their beliefs, values and preferences. Model descriptions typically include only the explicit decisions and are silent on value judgments that may explain these decisions. Eliciting scientists' mental models, a systematic approach to determining how they think about climate risk management, can help to gain a clearer understanding of their modeling decisions. In order to identify and represent the role of values, beliefs and preferences on decisions, we used an augmented mental models research approach, namely values-informed mental models (ViMM). We conducted and qualitatively analyzed interviews with eleven climate risk management scientists. Our results suggest that these scientists use a similar decision framework to each other to think about modeling climate risk management tradeoffs, including eight specific decisions ranging from defining the model objectives to evaluating the model's results. The influence of values on these decisions varied between our scientists and between the specific decisions. For instance, scientists invoked ethical values (e.g., concerns about human welfare) when defining objectives, but epistemic values (e.g., concerns about model consistency) were more influential when evaluating model results. ViMM can (i) enable insights that can inform the design of new computational models and (ii) make value judgments explicit and more inclusive of relevant values. This transparency can help model users to better discern the relevance of model results to their own decision framing and concerns. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
英文关键词 | Values-informed mental models Climate change Risk management Decision making under uncertainty |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000394634500010 |
WOS关键词 | ELECTRICITY PORTFOLIOS ; UNCERTAINTY ; THRESHOLDS ; ECONOMICS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Geography |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geography |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/37802 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.RAND Corp, 4570 Fifth Ave Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA; 2.Portland State Univ, Philosophy & Univ Studies, Portland, OR 97207 USA; 3.Penn State Univ, Dept Philosophy, University Pk, PA 16802 USA; 4.Penn State Univ, Dept Geosci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA; 5.Carnegie Mellon Univ, Dept Engn & Publ Policy, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA; 6.Univ Southern Indiana, Dept Philosophy, Evansville, IN USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Mayer, Lauren A.,Loa, Kathleen,Cwik, Bryan,et al. Understanding scientists' computational modeling decisions about climate risk management strategies using values-informed mental models[J]. GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS,2017,42. |
APA | Mayer, Lauren A..,Loa, Kathleen.,Cwik, Bryan.,Tuana, Nancy.,Keller, Klaus.,...&Lempert, Robert J..(2017).Understanding scientists' computational modeling decisions about climate risk management strategies using values-informed mental models.GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS,42. |
MLA | Mayer, Lauren A.,et al."Understanding scientists' computational modeling decisions about climate risk management strategies using values-informed mental models".GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS 42(2017). |
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