Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/joc.4887 |
Accessing vulnerability of land-cover types to climate change using physical scaling downscaling model | |
Gaur, Abhishek; Simonovic, Slobodan P. | |
2017-05-01 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
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ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 37期号:6 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Canada |
英文摘要 | The objective of this study is to investigate the vulnerability of different land-cover types to climate change. To this end, land-cover specific temperature change factors are quantified for the southern Saskatchewan region using a novel statistical downscaling model: physical scaling (SP). SP model considers large-scale climate and regional physical characteristics like land-cover, elevation in its formulation and hence can be used to predict future temperature for different land-cover types under changing large-scale climatic and land-cover conditions. The model is validated by assessing its ability to downscale North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) derived surface (skin) temperature from an initial resolution of 32 km to 500 m. The downscaled NARR data are evaluated using a cross-validation approach over the period 2006-2013 with reference to MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) derived surface temperature estimates and satisfactory model performance is obtained (average RMSE=0.03 K). The validated model is used to predict future surface temperature across the study region. Future land-cover projections are derived by downscaling land-use projections for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 made by integrated assessment models: IMAGE and MESSAGE, respectively. An analysis of land-cover specific temperature changes between historical (2006-2013) and future (2081-2100) timelines indicate variations of up to 2K between different land-cover classes. Vulnerability pattern of different land-cover classes differ significantly between day-and night-time. Further, variations of upto 1K in projected changes are observed among different forest cover types. Closed shrubland is obtained as the most vulnerable forest-cover class whereas evergreen broadleaf forest is found to be the least vulnerable. |
英文关键词 | land cover physical scaling forest cover climate change Saskatchewan |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000404849200008 |
WOS关键词 | URBAN HEAT-ISLAND ; SURFACE-TEMPERATURE ; GLOBAL CLIMATE ; IMPACT ; PRECIPITATION ; URBANIZATION ; SCENARIOS ; CANADA ; TOKYO |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/37755 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Western Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Facil Intelligent Decis Support, Spencer Engn Bldg,Room 3112, London, ON, Canada |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Gaur, Abhishek,Simonovic, Slobodan P.. Accessing vulnerability of land-cover types to climate change using physical scaling downscaling model[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2017,37(6). |
APA | Gaur, Abhishek,&Simonovic, Slobodan P..(2017).Accessing vulnerability of land-cover types to climate change using physical scaling downscaling model.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,37(6). |
MLA | Gaur, Abhishek,et al."Accessing vulnerability of land-cover types to climate change using physical scaling downscaling model".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 37.6(2017). |
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