Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/joc.4836 |
How many RCM ensemble members provide confidence in the impact of land-use land cover change? | |
Laux, Patrick1; Nguyen, Phuong N. B.1,2; Cullmann, Johannes3; Tan Phan Van4; Kunstmann, Harald1,5 | |
2017-03-30 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY |
ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 37期号:4 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Germany; Switzerland; Vietnam |
英文摘要 | Regional climate models (RCMs) include both terrestrial and atmospheric compartments and thereby allow studying land-atmosphere feedback, in particular, the impact of land-use land cover driven by biogeophysical processes on regional climate. In this study, a method is developed to separate the signals from the noise in RCM simulations of the effects of changes in land use, using perturbed initial boundary conditions (PICs). We want to know how many ensemble members are required to identify robust and statistically significant land-use land cover change (LULCC) effects from RCM LULCC studies. The method is applied to a case study of urbanization and deforestation, for which LULCC scenarios are implemented in the RCM Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF). Based on WRF ensemble simulations with PICs for 2010, the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is used to identify areas with pronounced effect of an LULCC or, rather, the parametrization of the land-use classes. While in the urbanization scenarios clear and statistically significant signals are found for air temperature and for both latent- and sensible heat (SNR values up to 24), the effects are less pronounced for precipitation, and for deforestation in general (SNR values < 1). For the case study of urbanization and precipitation, the impact of the ensemble size is studied in order to derive robust conclusions about the effects of LULCC on precipitation. We conclude that single RCM realizations of different land-use representations are not sufficient to derive LULCC-induced signals, particularly not for precipitation. Small ensemble sizes led to concluding there were significant LULCC-induced precipitation signals, but these disappeared when the ensemble size was increased. Our regional analysis suggests the need for ensemble sizes well above 10 for precipitation. |
英文关键词 | perturbed initial conditions RCM ensemble simulations signal-to-noise separation urbanization deforestation Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) Vietnam land-use land cover change |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000397497700030 |
WOS关键词 | REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL ; INTERNAL VARIABILITY ; SYSTEM ; WRF ; RESOLUTION ; QUALITY ; ENERGY ; WATER |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/37720 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Karlsruhe Inst Technol, Inst Meteorol & Climate Res, Kreuzeckbahnstr 19, D-82467 Garmisch Partenkirchen, Germany; 2.Fed Inst Hydrol, IHP HWRP Secretariat, Koblenz, Germany; 3.World Meteorol Org, Climate & Water Dept, Geneva, Switzerland; 4.VNU Hanoi Univ Sci, Dept Meteorol, Hanoi, Vietnam; 5.Univ Augsburg, Inst Geog, Augsburg, Germany |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Laux, Patrick,Nguyen, Phuong N. B.,Cullmann, Johannes,et al. How many RCM ensemble members provide confidence in the impact of land-use land cover change?[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2017,37(4). |
APA | Laux, Patrick,Nguyen, Phuong N. B.,Cullmann, Johannes,Tan Phan Van,&Kunstmann, Harald.(2017).How many RCM ensemble members provide confidence in the impact of land-use land cover change?.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,37(4). |
MLA | Laux, Patrick,et al."How many RCM ensemble members provide confidence in the impact of land-use land cover change?".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 37.4(2017). |
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