资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

The climate of the European region during 20th and 21st centuries in terms of Feddema's (2005) annual and seasonal climate characteristics is analysed. Observed data for the 20th century are taken from the CRU TS 1.2 data set. The projected data for the 21st century are obtained using simulation results of nine regional climate models run in the scope of the ENSEMBLES project. In the analysis, the European region is arbitrarily divided into three sub-regions: the northern (72 degrees-55 degrees N), middle (55 degrees-42 degrees N) and southern (42 degrees-35 degrees N) zones. We focused on the analysis of the relationships between Feddema's climatic characteristics and the main geographical constraints (latitude, longitude, relief and land-locked waterbodies). It is shown that Feddema's climatic maps agree well with the expected effects of the main geographical controls. Climate type/geographical control dependence is very strong in the upland coastal regions of the Atlantic Ocean, that is, in the Norwegian Alps, the Scottish Highlands and the Galician Massif Mountains. A characteristic seasonal-type change can be observed in these regions: The seasonality of P changes through the seasonality of both P and T into the seasonality of T. This behaviour is registered by all model simulations in both the 20th and 21st centuries. The Atlantic Ocean-relief-longitude interplay effect on Feddema's climate types can be observed in all three zones. The uplands in Europe determine climate on the local scale. This upland effect is stronger when it is combined with the effect of extensive land-locked water bodies. This relationship is obtained by all model simulations in both the 20th and 21st centuries. Lastly, the area heterogeneity of the European region's climate is well reproduced. The observations and the modelling tools show that the climate became and will become warmer and dryer during the course of the 20th and 21st centuries.