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DOI | 10.1002/joc.5074 |
Large-scale ocean-atmospheric processes and seasonal rainfall variability in South Australia: accounting for non-linearity and establishing the hierarchy of influence | |
Tozer, C. R.1,2; Kiem, A. S.1 | |
2017-08-01 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
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ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 37 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Australia |
英文摘要 | An important step in developing climate forecasts is the identification of an appropriate set of predictors. Seasonal rainfall forecasts for South Australia (SA) currently have low predictive skill. It is hypothesised that this is because the large-scale climate processes influencing SA's rainfall variability have yet to be completely identified and therefore are not adequately represented in forecast models. Here, relationships between large-scale climate influences and rainfall in SA are assessed with a focus on methods that account for non-linearities inherent in the climate system. A threshold method and also a novel method for climate predictor selection, Partial Mutual Information, are used to establish the hierarchy of importance of the key influences. From a large suite of potential predictors, variability in the Subtropical Ridge intensity, blocking and the gradient of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical central and eastern Indian Ocean are found to be key indicators of seasonal rainfall variability in SA. Interactions between processes are shown to increase the amount of variability accounted for and therefore need to be better considered when producing seasonal forecasts. Notably, the view of which climate process(es) is(are) important changes depending on the input variables used, suggesting that it is not wise to make a priori assumptions about what is or is not important. Furthermore, even a perfect forecast of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the focus of forecasting efforts in Australia, will not necessarily lead to an improvement to forecast skill in SA given that these processes are not key for the region. The results of this analysis can inform the development of existing and new statistical and dynamical seasonal forecasting systems for SA, and for other regions where the impacts of climate variability are significant but not necessarily dominated by ENSO and IOD. |
英文关键词 | rainfall variability seasonal forecasting Partial Mutual Information ENSO IOD subtropical ridge non-linear blocking |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000417298600079 |
WOS关键词 | PARTIAL MUTUAL INFORMATION ; INPUT VARIABLE SELECTION ; WATER-SUPPLY MANAGEMENT ; ARTIFICIAL NEURAL-NETWORKS ; MULTI-DECADAL VARIABILITY ; TROPICAL INDIAN-OCEAN ; ANNULAR MODE ; PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ; SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ; MULTIDECADAL VARIABILITY |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/37666 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Newcastle, Ctr Water Climate & Land Use CWCL, Callaghan, NSW, Australia; 2.Univ Tasmania, Antarctic Climate & Ecosyst Cooperat Res Ctr, Private Bag 80, Hobart, Tas 7001, Australia |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Tozer, C. R.,Kiem, A. S.. Large-scale ocean-atmospheric processes and seasonal rainfall variability in South Australia: accounting for non-linearity and establishing the hierarchy of influence[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2017,37. |
APA | Tozer, C. R.,&Kiem, A. S..(2017).Large-scale ocean-atmospheric processes and seasonal rainfall variability in South Australia: accounting for non-linearity and establishing the hierarchy of influence.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,37. |
MLA | Tozer, C. R.,et al."Large-scale ocean-atmospheric processes and seasonal rainfall variability in South Australia: accounting for non-linearity and establishing the hierarchy of influence".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 37(2017). |
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