Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aa739a |
Skillful seasonal predictions of winter precipitation over southern China | |
Lu, Bo1,2; Scaife, Adam A.3; Dunstone, Nick3; Smith, Doug3; Ren, Hong-Li1,2,4; Liu, Ying1,2; Eade, Rosie3 | |
2017-07-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 12期号:7 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; England |
英文摘要 | Southern China experiences large year-to-year variability in the amount of winter precipitation, which can result in severe social and economic impacts. In this study, we demonstrate prediction skill of southern China winter precipitation by three operational seasonal prediction models: the operational Global seasonal forecasting system version 5 (GloSea5), the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) and the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC-CSM1.1m). The correlation scores reach 0.76 and 0.67 in GloSea5 and CFSv2, respectively; and the amplitude of the ensemble mean forecast signal is comparable to the observed variations. The skilful predictions in GloSea5 and CFSv2 mainly benefit from the successful representation of the observed ENSO teleconnection. El Nino weakens the Walker circulation and leads to the strengthening of the subtropical high over the northwestern Pacific. The anti-cyclone then induces anomalous northward flow over the South China Sea and brings water vapor to southern China, resulting in more precipitation. This teleconnection pattern is too weak in BCCCSM1.1m, which explains its low skill (0.13). Whereas the most skilful forecast system is also able to simulate the influence of the Indian Ocean on southern China precipitation via changes in southwesterly winds over the Bay of Bengal. Finally, we examine the real-time forecast for 2015/16 winter when a strong El Nino event led to the highest rainfall over southern China in recent decades. We find that the GloSea5 system gave good advice as it produced the third wettest southern China in the hindcast, but underestimated the observed amplitude. This is likely due to the underestimation of the Siberian High strength in 2015/2016 winter, which has driven strong convergence over southern China. We conclude that some current seasonal forecast systems can give useful warning of impending extremes. However, there is still need for further model improvement to fully represent the complex dynamics of the region. |
英文关键词 | winter precipitation seasonal prediction ENSO teleconnection |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000413807800002 |
WOS关键词 | NORTH-ATLANTIC OSCILLATION ; CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM ; ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ; COUPLED MODELS ; EAST-ASIA ; MONSOON ; ENSO ; PREDICTABILITY ; VARIABILITY ; RAINFALL |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/37593 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.China Meteorol Adm, Lab Climate Studies, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China; 2.Nanjing Univ, Sch Atmospher Sci, Inst Climate & Global Change Res, CMA NJU Joint Lab Climate Predict Studies, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 3.Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England; 4.China Univ Geosci, Sch Environm Studies, Dept Atmospher Sci, Wuhan 430074, Hubei, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lu, Bo,Scaife, Adam A.,Dunstone, Nick,et al. Skillful seasonal predictions of winter precipitation over southern China[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,12(7). |
APA | Lu, Bo.,Scaife, Adam A..,Dunstone, Nick.,Smith, Doug.,Ren, Hong-Li.,...&Eade, Rosie.(2017).Skillful seasonal predictions of winter precipitation over southern China.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,12(7). |
MLA | Lu, Bo,et al."Skillful seasonal predictions of winter precipitation over southern China".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 12.7(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论