Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aaab70 |
A sunny future: expert elicitation of China's solar photovoltaic technologies | |
Lam, Long T.1,2; Branstetter, Lee3,4,5,6; Azevedo, Ines L.1 | |
2018-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 13期号:3 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Portugal |
英文摘要 | China has emerged as the global manufacturing center for solar photovoltaic (PV) products. Chinese firms have entered all stages of the supply chain, producing most of the installed solar modules around the world. Meanwhile, production costs are at record lows. The decisions that Chinese solar producers make today will influence the path for the solar industry and its role towards de-carbonization of global energy systems in the years to come. However, to date, there have been no assessments of the future costs and efficiency of solar PV systems produced by the Chinese PV industry. We perform an expert elicitation to assess the technological and non-technological factors that led to the success of China's silicon PV industry as well as likely future costs and performance. Experts evaluated key metrics such as efficiency, costs, and commercial viability of 17 silicon and non-silicon solar PV technologies by 2030. Silicon-based technologies will continue to be the mainstream product for large-scale electricity generation application in the near future, with module efficiency reaching as high as 23% and production cost as low as $ 0.24/W. The levelized cost of electricity for solar will be around $ 34/MWh, allowing solar PV to be competitive with traditional energy resources like coal. The industry's future developments may be affected by overinvestment, overcapacity, and singular short-term focus. |
英文关键词 | solar photovoltaic expert elicitation China |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000427493300003 |
WOS关键词 | EFFICIENCY ; SILICON ; PV |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/37582 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Carnegie Mellon Univ, Dept Engn & Publ Policy, 5000 Forbes Ave, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA; 2.Catolica Lisbon Sch Business & Econ, P-1649023 Lisbon, Portugal; 3.Carnegie Mellon Univ, Heinz Coll, 5000 Forbes Ave, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA; 4.Carnegie Mellon Univ, Dept Social & Decis Sci, 5000 Forbes Ave, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA; 5.Peterson Inst Int Econ, 1750 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington, DC 20036 USA; 6.NBER, 1050 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lam, Long T.,Branstetter, Lee,Azevedo, Ines L.. A sunny future: expert elicitation of China's solar photovoltaic technologies[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,13(3). |
APA | Lam, Long T.,Branstetter, Lee,&Azevedo, Ines L..(2018).A sunny future: expert elicitation of China's solar photovoltaic technologies.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,13(3). |
MLA | Lam, Long T.,et al."A sunny future: expert elicitation of China's solar photovoltaic technologies".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 13.3(2018). |
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