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DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aa71bd |
Promising prediction of the monsoon trough and its implication for tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific | |
Li, Chaofan1; Lu, Riyu2; Chen, Guanghua1 | |
2017-07-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 12期号:7 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | The monsoon trough (MT) is generally recognized as a feeding ground for tropical cyclones (TCs) over the western North Pacific (WNP). In view of the many challenges that remain in current seasonal TC forecasting, it would be a profound benefit to understand the predictability of variations in the MT and the implications of this for the seasonal prediction of TC activity. This study reveals that high predictability of the MT is shown by the current atmosphere-ocean coupled forecasting system, with the correlation coefficient being 0.84 for the model-ensemble prediction with observations from 1960 to 2005. This high predictability arises mainly from the tropical dipole sea surface temperature over the Maritime Continent and tropical Pacific Ocean, which favors convection around the warm pool and further excites the vorticity anomalies over the WNP. It is further found that good knowledge of the MT could provide promising prediction of TC activity over the WNP, including the occurrence and energy of TCs. The findings of this study suggest that coupling between the WNP circulation and tropical ocean acts as an important source of seasonal predictability in the WNP, and highlight the importance of the MT for seasonal prediction of TCs over the WNP. |
英文关键词 | predictability monsoon trough tropical cyclone activity seasonal forecasting |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000406020000003 |
WOS关键词 | MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE ; SUMMER CLIMATE ; PREDICTABILITY ; MODELS ; VARIABILITY |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/37552 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Ctr Monsoon Syst Res, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China; 2.Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Numer Modeling Atmospher Sci & Geop, Inst Atmospher Phys, Beijing, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Li, Chaofan,Lu, Riyu,Chen, Guanghua. Promising prediction of the monsoon trough and its implication for tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,12(7). |
APA | Li, Chaofan,Lu, Riyu,&Chen, Guanghua.(2017).Promising prediction of the monsoon trough and its implication for tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,12(7). |
MLA | Li, Chaofan,et al."Promising prediction of the monsoon trough and its implication for tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 12.7(2017). |
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