Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/joc.5915 |
On the decadal predictability of the frequency of flood events across the US Midwest | |
Neri, Andrea1; Villarini, Gabriele2; Salvi, Kaustubh A.3; Slater, Louise J.4; Napolitano, Francesco1 | |
2019-03-15 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY |
ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 39期号:3页码:1796-1804 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Italy; USA; India; England |
英文摘要 | Skilful predictions of the frequency of flood events over long lead times (e.g., from 1 to 10 years ahead) are essential for governments and institutions making near-term flood risk plans. However, little is known about current flood prediction capabilities over annual to decadal timescales. Here we address this knowledge gap at 286 U.S. Geological Survey gaging stations across the U.S. Midwest using precipitation and temperature decadal predictions from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 5 models. We use the 1-10-year predictions of precipitation and temperature as inputs to statistical models that have significant skill in reproducing inter-annual and decadal changes in the observed frequency of flood events. Our results indicate that the limited skill of basin-averaged precipitation predictions suppresses the skill of flood event frequency predictions, even at the shortest lead time, but downscaling and bias correction improves predictions across all lead times and especially in spring. |
英文关键词 | decadal prediction flood frequency general circulation model peak-over-threshold seasonal statistical modelling |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000461606600045 |
WOS关键词 | CONTINENTAL UNITED-STATES ; PREDICTIONS ; AUSTRALIA ; IMPACTS ; CMIP5 |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/37496 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Roma La Sapienza, Dept Civil Construct & Environm Engn, Via Eudossiana 18, I-00184 Rome, Italy; 2.Univ Iowa, IIHR Hydrosci & Engn, Iowa City, IA USA; 3.Coll Engn, Dept Civil Engn, Pune, Maharashtra, India; 4.Univ Oxford, Sch Geog & Environm, Oxford, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Neri, Andrea,Villarini, Gabriele,Salvi, Kaustubh A.,et al. On the decadal predictability of the frequency of flood events across the US Midwest[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2019,39(3):1796-1804. |
APA | Neri, Andrea,Villarini, Gabriele,Salvi, Kaustubh A.,Slater, Louise J.,&Napolitano, Francesco.(2019).On the decadal predictability of the frequency of flood events across the US Midwest.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,39(3),1796-1804. |
MLA | Neri, Andrea,et al."On the decadal predictability of the frequency of flood events across the US Midwest".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 39.3(2019):1796-1804. |
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