Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/joc.5193 |
Use of observed temperature statistics in ranking CMIP5 model performance over the Western Himalayan Region of India | |
Das, Lalu1; Dutta, Monami1; Mezghani, Abdelkader2; Benestad, Rasmus E.2 | |
2018-02-01 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY |
ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 38期号:2页码:554-570 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | India; Norway |
英文摘要 | Assessing warming over the Western Himalayan Region (WHR) of India is challenging due to its limited station data availability and poor data quality. The missing values in the station data were replaced using the Multiple Imputation Chained Equation technique. Finally, 16 stations having continuous records during 1969-2009 were considered as the reference stations' for assessing the warming/cooling trends in addition to evaluate the Coupled Model Intercomparison, phase 5 (CMIP5), Global Circulation Model (GCM). Station data indicates winter (DJF) warming is higher and rapid (1.41 degrees C) than the other seasons and less warming was observed in the post-monsoon (0.31 degrees C) season. Overall mean annual warming over WHR is approximate to 0.84 degrees C during 1969-2009. The performance of 34 CMIP5 models was evaluated based on three different criteria namely (1) mean seasonal cycle, (2) temporal trends and (3) spatial correlation between simulated and observed signals for common available period of 1969-2003 over the study area. Models are provided a final rank on the basis of the cumulative rank obtained in each of three approaches. CMCC-CM, GISS-E2-H and MIROC 5 are three top-ranked models while MIROC-ESM, MIROC-ESM-CHEM and bcc-csm1-1 are three bottom-ranked models over the WHR. The study also extended to judge whether the selected top-ranked models perform well through two alternative data sources namely European Reanalysis (ERA)-interim and Climate Research Unit (CRU), which have not used in the process of model evaluation. The spatial patterns of top-ranked GCM are similar to the spatial pattern obtained through ERA-interim and CRU while zoomed in to WHR but bottom-ranked models fail to reproduce such spatial patterns indicating the top-ranked GCMs would offer more reliability for projecting future climate over WHR. |
英文关键词 | MICE CMIP5 GCMs ERA-interim seasonal cycle spatial correlation trends |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000423816900004 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; NORTHWESTERN HIMALAYA ; MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ; CHANGE SCENARIOS ; TRENDS ; PROJECTIONS ; MINIMUM ; REGRESSION ; GLACIERS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/37433 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Bidhan Chandra Krishi Viswavidyalaya, Dept Agr Meteorol & Phys, Nadia 741252, W Bengal, India; 2.Norwegian Meteorol Inst, Div Model & Climate Anal, Oslo, Norway |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Das, Lalu,Dutta, Monami,Mezghani, Abdelkader,et al. Use of observed temperature statistics in ranking CMIP5 model performance over the Western Himalayan Region of India[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2018,38(2):554-570. |
APA | Das, Lalu,Dutta, Monami,Mezghani, Abdelkader,&Benestad, Rasmus E..(2018).Use of observed temperature statistics in ranking CMIP5 model performance over the Western Himalayan Region of India.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,38(2),554-570. |
MLA | Das, Lalu,et al."Use of observed temperature statistics in ranking CMIP5 model performance over the Western Himalayan Region of India".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 38.2(2018):554-570. |
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