Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/joc.5389 |
Attributing drivers of the 2016 Kenyan drought | |
Uhe, Peter1,2,7; Philip, Sjoukje3; Kew, Sarah3; Shah, Kasturi4; Kimutai, Joyce5; Mwangi, Emmah5; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan3; Singh, Roop6; Arrighi, Julie6; Jjemba, Eddie6; Cullen, Heidi4; Otto, Friederike1 | |
2018-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY |
ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 38页码:E554-E568 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England; Netherlands; USA; Kenya |
英文摘要 | In 2016 and continuing into 2017, Kenya experienced drought conditions, with over 3 million people in need of food aid due to low rainfall during 2016. Whenever extreme events like this happen, questions are raised about the role of climate change and how natural variability such as the El Nino - Southern Oscillation influenced the likelihood and intensity of the event. Here we aim to quantify the relative contributions of different climate drivers to this drought by applying three independent methodologies of extreme event attribution. Analysing precipitation data for the South East and North West of Kenya we found no consistent signal from human-induced climate change and thus conclude that it has not greatly affected the likelihood of low rainfall such as in 2016. However, 2016 was a La Nina year and we show that this event was indeed more likely because of the specific sea surface temperatures. There is a trend in temperatures in the region due to climate change that may have exacerbated the effects of this drought. By analysing precipitation minus evaporation and soil moisture, simulated by one climate model only, we did not see a reduction in moisture in simulations in the current climate compared with simulations without climate change. However, there are expected effects of higher temperatures that our simulations do not cover, such as increased demand on water resources and stress on livestock. Although we find no significant influence of climate change on precipitation, we cannot rule out that temperature-related impacts of drought are linked to human-induced climate change. |
英文关键词 | attribution climate change drought El Nino Kenya |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000431999600037 |
WOS关键词 | SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; EAST-AFRICAN RAINFALL ; INDIAN-OCEAN ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; LA-NINA ; PRECIPITATION ; IMPACTS ; SYSTEM ; DIPOLE ; EVENT |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/37420 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Oxford, Environm Change Inst, Oxford, England; 2.Univ Oxford, Oxford E Res Ctr, Oxford, England; 3.Royal Netherlands Meteorol Inst KNMI, De Bilt, Netherlands; 4.Climate Cent, Princeton, NJ USA; 5.Kenya Meteorol Dept, Nairobi, Kenya; 6.Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Ctr, The Hague, Netherlands; 7.Univ Bristol, Sch Geog Sci, Bristol, Avon, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Uhe, Peter,Philip, Sjoukje,Kew, Sarah,et al. Attributing drivers of the 2016 Kenyan drought[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2018,38:E554-E568. |
APA | Uhe, Peter.,Philip, Sjoukje.,Kew, Sarah.,Shah, Kasturi.,Kimutai, Joyce.,...&Otto, Friederike.(2018).Attributing drivers of the 2016 Kenyan drought.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,38,E554-E568. |
MLA | Uhe, Peter,et al."Attributing drivers of the 2016 Kenyan drought".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 38(2018):E554-E568. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论