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DOI | 10.1002/joc.5117 |
Spatio-temporal characteristics of Indonesian drought related to El Nino events and its predictability using the multi-model ensemble | |
Setiawan, Amsari Mudzakir1; Lee, Woo-Seop2; Rhee, Jinyoung3 | |
2017-11-15 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY |
ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 37期号:13 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Indonesia; South Korea |
英文摘要 | Spatio-temporal drought characteristics related to weak, moderate, and strong El Nino events in the Indonesian region were investigated. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) patterns of normalized monthly precipitation and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for the period 1950-2010 were analysed; the influence of El Nino events are better represented by SPI. The effects of El Nino events on meteorological drought were investigated based on a composite analysis. The effects of El Nino were more obvious during June-July-August and September-October-November, while they were not significant in March-April-May especially during weak and moderate El Nino events. Spatial distributions of affected areas varied by season, intensity of El Nino events, and local factors. During moderate and strong El Nino events, meteorological drought was more common in southern Sumatra, Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara, southeastern Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Maluku, and Papua. Based on the spatial and temporal variability of droughts, the monthly or seasonal meteorological drought outlook can be improved by using SPI focusing more on the regions and seasons that are affected by El Nino events. The multi-model ensemble (MME) forecast of SPI performed better for the target months of September to November even at medium lead times. The months are consistent with the period of serious El Nino effects on drought, implying that serious drought conditions during the most harshly affected season can be predicted using the MME forecast. |
英文关键词 | meteorological drought drought characteristics El Nino Indonesia multi-model ensemble Standardized Precipitation Index |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000414329800017 |
WOS关键词 | RAINFALL VARIABILITY ; SOUTHERN-OSCILLATION ; SPATIAL COHERENCE ; ENSO PREDICTION ; DIURNAL CYCLE ; MONSOON ONSET ; PRECIPITATION ; TEMPERATURE ; PATTERNS ; SST |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/37387 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Indonesian Agcy Meteorol Climatol & Geophys, Ctr Climate Change Informat, Jakarta, Indonesia; 2.APEC Climate Ctr, Climate Predict Dept, Busan, South Korea; 3.APEC Climate Ctr, Climate Applicat Dept, Busan, South Korea |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Setiawan, Amsari Mudzakir,Lee, Woo-Seop,Rhee, Jinyoung. Spatio-temporal characteristics of Indonesian drought related to El Nino events and its predictability using the multi-model ensemble[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2017,37(13). |
APA | Setiawan, Amsari Mudzakir,Lee, Woo-Seop,&Rhee, Jinyoung.(2017).Spatio-temporal characteristics of Indonesian drought related to El Nino events and its predictability using the multi-model ensemble.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,37(13). |
MLA | Setiawan, Amsari Mudzakir,et al."Spatio-temporal characteristics of Indonesian drought related to El Nino events and its predictability using the multi-model ensemble".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 37.13(2017). |
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