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DOI | 10.1002/joc.5400 |
Regional frequency analysis of extreme rainfall in Sicily (Italy) | |
Forestieri, Angelo1; Lo Conti, Francesco1; Blenkinsop, Stephen2; Cannarozzo, Marcella1; Fowler, Hayley J.2; Noto, Leonardo V.1 | |
2018-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
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ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 38页码:E698-E716 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Italy; England |
英文摘要 | Extreme rainfall events have large impacts on society and are likely to increase in intensity under climate change. For design and management decisions, particularly regarding hydraulic works, accurate estimates of precipitation magnitudes are needed at different durations. In this article, an objective approach of the regional frequency analysis (RFA) has been applied to precipitation data for the island of Sicily, Italy. Annual maximum series for rainfall with durations of 1, 3, 6, 12, and 24 h from about 130 rain gauges were used. The RFA has been implemented using principal component analysis (PCA) followed by a clustering analysis, through the k-means algorithm, to identify statistically homogeneous groups of stations for the derivation of regional growth curves. Three regional probability distributions were identified as appropriate from an initial wider selection of distributions andwere compared - the three-parameter log-normal distribution (LN3), the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution, and the two component extreme value (TCEV) distribution. The regional parameters of these distributions were estimated using L-moments and considering a hierarchical approach. Finally, assessment of the accuracy of the growth curves was achieved by means of the relative bias and relative root-mean-square error (RMSE) using a simulation analysis of regional L-moments. Results highlight that for the lower return periods, all distributions showed the same accuracy while for higher return periods the LN3 distribution provided the best result. The study provides an updated resource for the estimation of extreme precipitation quantiles for Sicily through the derivation of growth curves needed to obtain depth-duration-frequency (DDF) curves. |
英文关键词 | extreme rainfall L-moments principal components analysis K-means clustering regionalization |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000431999600047 |
WOS关键词 | SPATIAL INTERPOLATION ; FUTURE CHANGES ; TIME-SERIES ; FLOOD ; PRECIPITATION ; STATISTICS ; MOMENTS ; VARIABILITY ; INTENSITY ; CLIMATE |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/37376 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Palermo, Dipartimento Ingn Civile, Ambientale, Aerosp,Mat, Viale Sci,Edificio 8, I-90128 Palermo, Italy; 2.Newcastle Univ, Sch Civil Engn & Geosci, Newcastle Upon Tyne, Tyne & Wear, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Forestieri, Angelo,Lo Conti, Francesco,Blenkinsop, Stephen,et al. Regional frequency analysis of extreme rainfall in Sicily (Italy)[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2018,38:E698-E716. |
APA | Forestieri, Angelo,Lo Conti, Francesco,Blenkinsop, Stephen,Cannarozzo, Marcella,Fowler, Hayley J.,&Noto, Leonardo V..(2018).Regional frequency analysis of extreme rainfall in Sicily (Italy).INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,38,E698-E716. |
MLA | Forestieri, Angelo,et al."Regional frequency analysis of extreme rainfall in Sicily (Italy)".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 38(2018):E698-E716. |
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