GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1002/joc.5400
Regional frequency analysis of extreme rainfall in Sicily (Italy)
Forestieri, Angelo1; Lo Conti, Francesco1; Blenkinsop, Stephen2; Cannarozzo, Marcella1; Fowler, Hayley J.2; Noto, Leonardo V.1
2018-04-01
发表期刊INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN0899-8418
EISSN1097-0088
出版年2018
卷号38页码:E698-E716
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Italy; England
英文摘要

Extreme rainfall events have large impacts on society and are likely to increase in intensity under climate change. For design and management decisions, particularly regarding hydraulic works, accurate estimates of precipitation magnitudes are needed at different durations. In this article, an objective approach of the regional frequency analysis (RFA) has been applied to precipitation data for the island of Sicily, Italy. Annual maximum series for rainfall with durations of 1, 3, 6, 12, and 24 h from about 130 rain gauges were used. The RFA has been implemented using principal component analysis (PCA) followed by a clustering analysis, through the k-means algorithm, to identify statistically homogeneous groups of stations for the derivation of regional growth curves. Three regional probability distributions were identified as appropriate from an initial wider selection of distributions andwere compared - the three-parameter log-normal distribution (LN3), the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution, and the two component extreme value (TCEV) distribution. The regional parameters of these distributions were estimated using L-moments and considering a hierarchical approach. Finally, assessment of the accuracy of the growth curves was achieved by means of the relative bias and relative root-mean-square error (RMSE) using a simulation analysis of regional L-moments. Results highlight that for the lower return periods, all distributions showed the same accuracy while for higher return periods the LN3 distribution provided the best result. The study provides an updated resource for the estimation of extreme precipitation quantiles for Sicily through the derivation of growth curves needed to obtain depth-duration-frequency (DDF) curves.


英文关键词extreme rainfall L-moments principal components analysis K-means clustering regionalization
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000431999600047
WOS关键词SPATIAL INTERPOLATION ; FUTURE CHANGES ; TIME-SERIES ; FLOOD ; PRECIPITATION ; STATISTICS ; MOMENTS ; VARIABILITY ; INTENSITY ; CLIMATE
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
被引频次:49[WOS]   [WOS记录]     [WOS相关记录]
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/37376
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Univ Palermo, Dipartimento Ingn Civile, Ambientale, Aerosp,Mat, Viale Sci,Edificio 8, I-90128 Palermo, Italy;
2.Newcastle Univ, Sch Civil Engn & Geosci, Newcastle Upon Tyne, Tyne & Wear, England
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GB/T 7714
Forestieri, Angelo,Lo Conti, Francesco,Blenkinsop, Stephen,et al. Regional frequency analysis of extreme rainfall in Sicily (Italy)[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2018,38:E698-E716.
APA Forestieri, Angelo,Lo Conti, Francesco,Blenkinsop, Stephen,Cannarozzo, Marcella,Fowler, Hayley J.,&Noto, Leonardo V..(2018).Regional frequency analysis of extreme rainfall in Sicily (Italy).INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,38,E698-E716.
MLA Forestieri, Angelo,et al."Regional frequency analysis of extreme rainfall in Sicily (Italy)".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 38(2018):E698-E716.
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