Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/joc.5047 |
Understanding south-east Australian rainfall projection uncertainties: the influence of patterns of projected tropical warming | |
Timbal, B.1; Fiddes, S.1,2,3; Brown, J. R.1 | |
2017-08-01 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
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ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 37 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Australia |
英文摘要 | South-Eastern Australia and, in particular the state of Victoria, has experienced record deficits of rainfall over the last 20 years, in which the cool part of the year from April to October has been most affected. This situation has created difficulties for water managers, farmers and fire services, with the need to provide more certainty about future climate trends becoming clear. The latest climate projections for South-Eastern Australia project an overall drying in the cool part of the year with little change in the rest of the year. Although this is in line with current trends, very large uncertainties are associated with these projections. In this study, this range of projections has been investigated, first by assessing howthe current suite of climate models simulate the regional rainfall as well as the tropical variability, known to be a key driver of south-eastern Australian climate. The models were found to be reasonable overall, although a number overestimate Victorian summer rainfall. Model rainfall projections are found to be related to the models' projected patterns of tropical warming, where 60% of the range in cool season rainfall projections can be explained by the range of pattern of tropical changes. In addition, the projected drying tends to be more intense in the models best able to simulate summer rainfall, thus suggesting that the upper end of the uncertainty range is less likely to be realized as it may reflect inherent model biases, rather than physical changes. |
英文关键词 | South-Eastern Australia rainfall future projections uncertainties tropical warming teleconnections |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000417298600062 |
WOS关键词 | SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ; VARIABILITY ; CIRCULATION ; CMIP5 |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/37352 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Bur Meteorol, Res & Dev Branch, 700 Collins St, Melbourne, Vic 3008, Australia; 2.Univ Melbourne, Australian German Climate & Energy Coll, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; 3.Univ Melbourne, ARC Ctr Excellence Climate Syst Sci, Sch Earth Sci, Melbourne, Vic, Australia |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Timbal, B.,Fiddes, S.,Brown, J. R.. Understanding south-east Australian rainfall projection uncertainties: the influence of patterns of projected tropical warming[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2017,37. |
APA | Timbal, B.,Fiddes, S.,&Brown, J. R..(2017).Understanding south-east Australian rainfall projection uncertainties: the influence of patterns of projected tropical warming.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,37. |
MLA | Timbal, B.,et al."Understanding south-east Australian rainfall projection uncertainties: the influence of patterns of projected tropical warming".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 37(2017). |
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