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DOI | 10.1002/joc.4797 |
Monthly rain amounts at Fabra Observatory (Barcelona, NE Spain): fractal structure, autoregressive processes and correlation with monthly Western Mediterranean Oscillation index | |
Lana, X.1; Burgueno, A.2; Martinez, M. D.3; Serra, C.1 | |
2017-03-15 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
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ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 37期号:3 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Spain |
英文摘要 | Monthly rain amounts (MRA) recorded at Fabra Observatory (Barcelona, NE Spain) since 1917-2010, are analysed from two complementary points of view. First, mono- and multifractal characteristics of MRA are compared with those corresponding to the monthly Western Mediterranean Oscillation index (WeMOi), which affects the rainfall regime at the western Mediterranean region. Monofractality is analysed through Hurst and Hausdorff exponents, and a power law describing the dependence of MRA power spectra on frequency. The reconstruction theorem permits to quantify the complexity of the physical process by means of the correlation dimension and the Kolmogorov entropy. In agreement with this theorem, the predictive instability is also evaluated through the Lyapunov exponents. The multifractality is characterized by the critical Holder exponent, as well as by the asymmetry and spectral width of the multifractal spectrum. Second, three predictive processes for MRA are tested. One of them is based on the assumption that MRA could be simulated by fractional Gaussian noise. The other two are, by one hand, an ARIMA(p,1,0) process for MRA; on the other hand, an adaptation of the ARIMA process for MRA taking as arguments preceding WeMOi. Finally, relationships between MRA and WeMOi confirm that outstanding MRA use to be coincident with negative WeMOi. An explanation is also proposed for the non-negligible number of MRA corresponding to positive WeMOi. |
英文关键词 | monthly rain Western Mediterranean Oscillation mono- and multifractal analyses autoregressive process Fabra Observatory (Barcelona) |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000395349500031 |
WOS关键词 | UNIVERSAL MULTIFRACTAL DESCRIPTION ; CATALONIA NORTHEASTERN SPAIN ; DAILY PLUVIOMETRIC REGIME ; STATISTICAL DISTRIBUTIONS ; PRECIPITATION PATTERNS ; IBERIAN PENINSULA ; TIME-SERIES ; DRY SPELLS ; TELECONNECTION PATTERNS ; MONTHLY SHORTAGE |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/37323 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Politecn Cataluna, Dept Fis & Engn Nucl, Barcelona, Spain; 2.Univ Barcelona, Dept Astron & Meteorol, Barcelona, Spain; 3.Univ Politecn Cataluna, Dept Fis Aplicada, Barcelona, Spain |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lana, X.,Burgueno, A.,Martinez, M. D.,et al. Monthly rain amounts at Fabra Observatory (Barcelona, NE Spain): fractal structure, autoregressive processes and correlation with monthly Western Mediterranean Oscillation index[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2017,37(3). |
APA | Lana, X.,Burgueno, A.,Martinez, M. D.,&Serra, C..(2017).Monthly rain amounts at Fabra Observatory (Barcelona, NE Spain): fractal structure, autoregressive processes and correlation with monthly Western Mediterranean Oscillation index.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,37(3). |
MLA | Lana, X.,et al."Monthly rain amounts at Fabra Observatory (Barcelona, NE Spain): fractal structure, autoregressive processes and correlation with monthly Western Mediterranean Oscillation index".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 37.3(2017). |
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