Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/joc.5255 |
An event synchronization method to link heavy rainfall events and large-scale atmospheric circulation features | |
Conticello, Federico1; Cioffi, Francesco1; Merz, Bruno2; Lall, Upmanu3 | |
2018-03-15 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY |
ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 38期号:3页码:1421-1437 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Italy; Germany; USA |
英文摘要 | Heavy rainfall, floods and other hydroclimatic extremes may be related to specific states of organization of the atmospheric circulation. The identification of these states and their linkage to local extremes could facilitate a physically meaningful quantification of local extremes in future climates and could allow forecasting extremes conditioned on the large-scale atmospheric state. A novel methodology is presented that combines non-linear, non-parametric methods to link heavy precipitation events (HPEs) to atmospheric circulation states. Using daily rainfall data for the period 1951-2015 from 37 gauges in the Lazio region in Italy, HPEs are defined. For the same period, two atmospheric variables, namely, the 850hPa geopotential height field and the integrated vapour transport (IVT), are derived from reanalysis data. The geopotential configurations driving heavy precipitation in the region are identified by combing self-organized maps and event synchronization. First, a finite number of representative geopotential configurations is identified. Rainfall gauges are pooled into clusters, which show synchronized occurrence of heavy precipitation. Furthermore, geopotential configurations are identified, which tend to drive HPEs. For these geopotential states, the probability of HPE occurrence as a function of IVT is calculated through a local logistic regression model. Finally, it is explored whether the identified patterns are related to the occurrence of atmospheric rivers, which govern the atmospheric humidity transport from the tropics and subtropics to Europe. The relation found demonstrates the reliability of the proposed methodology. |
英文关键词 | flood self-organized map event synchronization heavy precipitation atmospheric river geopotential features |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000426729300023 |
WOS关键词 | TROPICAL MOISTURE EXPORTS ; SELF-ORGANIZING MAPS ; EXTREME PRECIPITATION ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; DECADAL TRENDS ; RIVERS ; EASTERN ; FLOODS ; WINTER ; PREDICTABILITY |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/37267 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Roma La Sapienza, Dipartimento Ingn Civile Edile & Ambientale, Via Eudossiana 18, I-00184 Rome, Italy; 2.GFZ German Res Ctr Geosci, Sect Hydrol, Potsdam, Germany; 3.Columbia Univ New York, Dept Earth & Environm Engn, New York, NY USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Conticello, Federico,Cioffi, Francesco,Merz, Bruno,et al. An event synchronization method to link heavy rainfall events and large-scale atmospheric circulation features[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2018,38(3):1421-1437. |
APA | Conticello, Federico,Cioffi, Francesco,Merz, Bruno,&Lall, Upmanu.(2018).An event synchronization method to link heavy rainfall events and large-scale atmospheric circulation features.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,38(3),1421-1437. |
MLA | Conticello, Federico,et al."An event synchronization method to link heavy rainfall events and large-scale atmospheric circulation features".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 38.3(2018):1421-1437. |
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