资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Long-term time series of climatological data measured at meteorological stations provide one of the most authentic annals of climate in the past. However, there are a host of factors that affect measurements of climate parameters and make the data unsuitable for direct use and analysis. Serial completion and homogenization thus have to be undertaken in order to draw valid conclusions about the climate, or to apply the time series in impact studies. This study reports on gap filling and homogenization results of climatological elements in the headwater region of the Upper Blue Nile Basin from 1980 to 2013. Firstly, approaches for reconstruction of the time series from neighboring stations using different techniques were compared and selected. Neighboring stations were selected based on horizontal distance and coefficient of correlation. Secondly, the reconstructed time series were homogenized using Multiple Analysis of Series for Homogenization (MASH). The results show improved spatial coherence of the final data series. Higher spatial coherence was revealed for maximum temperature than for minimum temperature and rainfall. For rainfall and minimum and maximum temperatures, the coefficient of correlation weighting method outperforms other candidate methods, such as the normal ratio method (NRM), the modified NRM, and the inverse distance weighting method. Rainfall series for half of the stations considered were found to be homogeneous, and thus inhomogeneity corrections were not applied. Inhomogeneity in the remaining stations either underestimates or overestimates annual rainfall series. All stations revealed inhomogeneity in the mean annual maximum and minimum temperature series. These serially complete and homogenized data on rainfall, and minimum and maximum temperatures of the present study can be used for climate change and hydrological studies in the basin.