Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/joc.5838 |
Estimation of economic losses from tropical cyclones in China at 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C warming using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM | |
Wen, Shanshan1,2; Wang, Yanjun3; Su, Buda1,3,4; Gao, Chao5; Chen, Xue3; Jiang, Tong3,4; Tao, Hui1; Fischer, Thomas4,6; Wang, Guojie3; Zhai, Jianqing3,4 | |
2019-02-01 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
![]() |
ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 39期号:2页码:724-737 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; Germany |
英文摘要 | Adverse impacts and increasing economic losses from tropical cyclones (TCs) are a major focus in respect to the potential global warming of 1.5 degrees C or even 2.0 degrees C. Based on observed meteorological data and county-scale loss records, loss-inducing rainfall and wind speed thresholds are identified using the regional climate model CCLM to project future TC events in China. An established damage function is combined with future gross domestic product predictions under five shared socio-economic pathways. At the 1.5 degrees C warming level, normalized TC losses will be four times higher than in the reference period (1986-2005). At the 2.0 degrees C warming level, a sevenfold increase is projected. Relative to the 1.5 degrees C warming level, TCs will become more frequent under the 2.0 degrees C scenario, especially along the southeast coast of China. Nearly 0.2-0.5% of the increase in gross domestic product might be offset by TC losses between the 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C warming levels, and the single highest TC loss at 2.0 degrees C may double that at 1.5 degrees C, with a larger affected area and more severe rainstorms and wind speeds. Rainfall is attributed more often to TC losses than wind speed. Limiting global warming at 1.5 degrees C would avoid an estimated increase in TC losses of more than 120 billion CNY annually. |
英文关键词 | 1.5 degrees C and 20 degrees C warming China economic loss influential tropical cyclone |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000459665000010 |
WOS关键词 | WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC ; 1.5 DEGREES-C ; FUTURE CHANGES ; SCENARIO FRAMEWORK ; PROJECTED CHANGES ; RIVER-BASIN ; FREQUENCY ; IMPACT ; GENESIS ; PRECIPITATION |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/37140 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, State Key Lab Desert & Oasis Ecol, Urumqi, Peoples R China; 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China; 3.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Sch Geog Sci, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 4.China Meteorol Adm, Natl Climate Ctr, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China; 5.Ningbo Univ, Dept Geog & Spatial Informat Tech, Ningbo, Zhejiang, Peoples R China; 6.Eberhard Karls Univ Tubingen, Dept Geosci, Tubingen, Germany |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wen, Shanshan,Wang, Yanjun,Su, Buda,et al. Estimation of economic losses from tropical cyclones in China at 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C warming using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2019,39(2):724-737. |
APA | Wen, Shanshan.,Wang, Yanjun.,Su, Buda.,Gao, Chao.,Chen, Xue.,...&Zhai, Jianqing.(2019).Estimation of economic losses from tropical cyclones in China at 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C warming using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,39(2),724-737. |
MLA | Wen, Shanshan,et al."Estimation of economic losses from tropical cyclones in China at 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C warming using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 39.2(2019):724-737. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论