资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

The study investigates the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) model fidelity in capturing large-scale dynamical field and the energy conversion processes during organization and intensification of Boreal Summer Intra-Seasonal Oscillation (BSISO). Experiment is carried out to make 10-year free run to evaluate the model. Based on rainfall analyses, two types of events are defined one strong and other with weaker intensity. The result reveals that model over estimates the BSISO intensity starting from the initial phase. Strong events based on MERRA data show a persistent increasing lower-level moisture convergence with respect to convection centre (CC) and a collocated vertical velocity with CC. However, model moisture convergence and vertical velocity are slightly stronger than observation at the initial phase but it is not persisting in the subsequent lags. The analysis of eddy kinetic energy (EKE) budget equation shows that the model intra-seasonal EKE is very weak at 850 hPa level. The vertical structure of EKE has shown that a positive EKE at the lower to middle troposphere increases in the subsequent lags but it is very weak for model. The analysis of each term of EKE budget has shown that the barotropic energy conversion (Delta CK) and convergence of eddy geopotential fluxes (Delta FG) are the dominant contributors for positive EKE tendency in the ERA analysis and both the terms increase as the BSISO approaches towards its organized and intense phase. However for model, the above terms are very weak. The EKE advection through large-scale background flow (Delta AM) and synoptic-scale eddy (Delta AE) adds negatively to the EKE tendency for strong events. However for model, the magnitudes of the above terms are higher than that of the observation for both strong and weak events. Thus, the model has deficiency in capturing the dynamical processes and the energy conversion processes properly.