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DOI | 10.1002/joc.5813 |
Prediction of summer extreme precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin | |
Liu, Lu1,2,3; Ning, Liang1,2,3,4,5; Liu, Jian1,2,3,4; Yan, Mi1,2,3,4; Sun, Weiyi1,2,3 | |
2019 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY |
ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 39期号:1页码:375-383 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; USA |
英文摘要 | Based on high-resolution observed daily precipitation data and atmospheric circulation data, a physics-based empirical model (PEM) is built for the prediction of summer extreme precipitation (SEP) over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin (MLYRB; 27 degrees-33 degrees N, 108 degrees-120 degrees E). Two preceding predictors with significant physical influences (i.e., spring sea surface temperatures [SSTs] across the northern Indian Ocean [NIO; 20 degrees S-20 degrees N, 50 degrees-95 degrees E] and sea level pressure [SLP], which was defined as spring mean SLP anomalies averaged over the western North Pacific (WNP; 30 degrees S-30 degrees N,120 degrees E-150 degrees W) minus spring mean SLP anomalies averaged over the Aleutian Islands (AIs; 50 degrees-70 degrees N,160 degrees E-160 degrees W)) are selected. Analyses of these physical mechanisms show that when spring SSTs over the NIO are higher, the South Asian High (SAH) extends to the east and the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) extends to the west; therefore, the generated secondary circulation induces anomalous upward motions and increases water vapour transport to the MLYRB, which results in increased SEP. Meanwhile, the increase in SEP over the MLYRB is related to control by conditions via anticyclonic anomalies over the Philippines, which are maintained through the interaction between abnormally high WNP and dipole SST anomalies. The regression model is built over the period 1961-1999 with a correlation coefficient skill of 0.56 (p<0.01), and the independent forecast of the PEM over the validation period 2000-2014 shows a skillful SEP prediction, with a significant correlation coefficient of 0.52 (p<0.05). |
英文关键词 | extreme precipitation physics-based empirical model seasonal precipitation |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000459638400028 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE EXTREMES ; RAINFALL ; PACIFIC ; EVENTS ; FREQUENCY ; MONSOON ; CHINA ; ENSO |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/37065 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Nanjing Normal Univ, Minist Educ, Key Lab Virtual Geog Environm, Nanjing 210023, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 2.Jiangsu Prov Cultivat Base, State Key Lab Geog Environm Evolut, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 3.Nanjing Normal Univ, Sch Geog Sci, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 4.Jiangsu Ctr Collaborat Innovat Geog Informat Reso, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 5.Univ Massachusetts, Dept Geosci, Climate Syst Res Ctr, Amherst, MA 01003 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Liu, Lu,Ning, Liang,Liu, Jian,et al. Prediction of summer extreme precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2019,39(1):375-383. |
APA | Liu, Lu,Ning, Liang,Liu, Jian,Yan, Mi,&Sun, Weiyi.(2019).Prediction of summer extreme precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,39(1),375-383. |
MLA | Liu, Lu,et al."Prediction of summer extreme precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 39.1(2019):375-383. |
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