Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/joc.5207 |
Observed variability and trends in the microclimate of the midlands of KwaZulu-Natal and its influence on fire danger | |
Strydom, Sheldon; Savage, Michael J. | |
2018-02-01 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
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ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 38期号:2页码:751-760 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | South Africa |
英文摘要 | Current changes in global climate are likely to be evident at both the regional and the local scale. This study presents an investigation in climatic trends in the KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) midlands, South Africa and seeks to assess the level of change in the microclimate and more specifically, the influence of a changing climate on fire danger. To this end, long-term (1953-2015), historical daily meteorological data from the KZN midlands were analysed, using multitemporal regression analysis as well as time-series analysis. Analysis indicated significant trends, to varying rates of change, across all sites. Over the last two decades, annual average air temperature was found to be increasing at a rate of between 1 and 3 degrees C century(-1). Atmospheric water vapour pressure across the three sites also experienced significant levels of change. Decreases in total rainfall over the last two decades are of concern. Fire danger, calculated using the Lowveld fire danger index (LFDI), displayed significant rates of change. At two sites, annual average fire danger, over the last two decades, was found to be decreasing at a rate between roughly 5 and 10 FDI units century(-1). The onset and length of the KZN midlands fire season has also undergone significant changes, as a response to changes in the microclimate. Sites experienced an overall decreasing trend in the onset of the fire season - indicative of an earlier start to the fire season, as well as an increase in fire season length. Results indicate that while the microclimate of the KZN midlands is changing, the rate of change differs from that of global and continental estimates. |
英文关键词 | climate change KZN midlands fire danger fire season seasonal variation wildfires |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000423816900017 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; SOUTH-AFRICA ; SEASON SEVERITY ; GRASSLAND ; FOREST |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/37048 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Univ KwaZulu Natal, Sch Agr Earth & Environm Sci, Agrometeorol Discipline, Soil Plant Atmosphere Continuum Res Unit, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Strydom, Sheldon,Savage, Michael J.. Observed variability and trends in the microclimate of the midlands of KwaZulu-Natal and its influence on fire danger[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2018,38(2):751-760. |
APA | Strydom, Sheldon,&Savage, Michael J..(2018).Observed variability and trends in the microclimate of the midlands of KwaZulu-Natal and its influence on fire danger.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,38(2),751-760. |
MLA | Strydom, Sheldon,et al."Observed variability and trends in the microclimate of the midlands of KwaZulu-Natal and its influence on fire danger".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 38.2(2018):751-760. |
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