GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1002/joc.5421
Projected changes in the evolution of drought on various timescales over the Czech Republic according to Euro-CORDEX models
Potopova, Vera1; Stepanek, Petr2,3; Zahradnicek, Pavel2,3; Farda, Ales2; Turkott, Lubos1; Soukup, Josef1
2018-04-01
发表期刊INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN0899-8418
EISSN1097-0088
出版年2018
卷号38页码:E939-E954
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Czech Republic
英文摘要

The main objective of this study was to project changes in the evolution of drought characteristics (frequency, duration and magnitude) during the 21st century in lowlands, highlands and mountainous regions in the Czech Republic (CR). We focused on the multi-scalar nature of droughts as a function of the variables that govern the balance of moisture during climate change, such as precipitation, which supplies moisture, and temperature, which modulates evapotranspiration. Thereby, this issue is addressed with two drought indices, i.e. the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and the standardized precipitation index (SPI), for various lags (1, 3, 6, 12 and 24months). To assess the impact of climate change on drought characteristics, a set of eight regional climate models (RCMs) simulations were selected for further analysis driven by five different global circulation models (GCMs) carried out in the frame of Euro-CORDEX. Future drought changes were developed for the two representative concentration scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). For the temporal evolution of the droughts, the monthly drought indices were calculated over the entire study period from 1961 to 2100. The SPEI showed a higher frequency in the categories of severe droughts and extreme droughts than the SPI, while the SPEI yielded fewer events in the extreme wet categories. The probability distribution of the SPEI-6 under the RCP8.5 scenario shifted more than one and a half standard deviations in lowlands at the end of the century, peaking at -1.65 (with a probability of 10.5%). This meant that severe droughts, according to the current climate criteria, will become the new norm in the period 2071-2100.


英文关键词Euro-CORDEX simulations regional climate models representative concentration scenarios SPI and SPEI drought analysis
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000431999600063
WOS关键词PRECIPITATION EVAPOTRANSPIRATION INDEX ; CLIMATE-CHANGE PROJECTIONS ; FUTURE ; IMPACTS ; PERFORMANCE ; CHALLENGES ; VEGETATION ; PATTERNS ; SCENARIO ; CMIP5
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/37041
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Czech Univ Life Sci Prague, Dept Agroecol & Biometeorol, Kamycka 129, Prague 16521 6, Czech Republic;
2.ASCR, Global Change Res Inst, Brno, Czech Republic;
3.Czech Hydrometeorol Inst, Brno, Czech Republic
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Potopova, Vera,Stepanek, Petr,Zahradnicek, Pavel,et al. Projected changes in the evolution of drought on various timescales over the Czech Republic according to Euro-CORDEX models[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2018,38:E939-E954.
APA Potopova, Vera,Stepanek, Petr,Zahradnicek, Pavel,Farda, Ales,Turkott, Lubos,&Soukup, Josef.(2018).Projected changes in the evolution of drought on various timescales over the Czech Republic according to Euro-CORDEX models.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,38,E939-E954.
MLA Potopova, Vera,et al."Projected changes in the evolution of drought on various timescales over the Czech Republic according to Euro-CORDEX models".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 38(2018):E939-E954.
条目包含的文件
条目无相关文件。
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
查看访问统计
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[Potopova, Vera]的文章
[Stepanek, Petr]的文章
[Zahradnicek, Pavel]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[Potopova, Vera]的文章
[Stepanek, Petr]的文章
[Zahradnicek, Pavel]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[Potopova, Vera]的文章
[Stepanek, Petr]的文章
[Zahradnicek, Pavel]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。