Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/joc.5721 |
Flood event attribution and damage estimation using national-scale grid-based modelling: Winter 2013/2014 in Great Britain | |
Kay, Alison L.1; Booth, Naomi2; Lamb, Rob3,4; Raven, Emma2; Schaller, Nathalie5,6; Sparrow, Sarah7 | |
2018-11-30 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
![]() |
ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 38期号:14页码:5205-5219 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England; Norway |
英文摘要 | A sequence of major flood events in Britain over the last two decades has prompted questions about the influence of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on flood risk. Such questions are difficult to answer definitively, as a range of other factors are involved, but modelling techniques allow an assessment of how much the chance of occurrence of an event could have been altered by emissions. Here the floods of winter 2013/2014 in Great Britain are assessed by combining ensembles of climate model data with a national-scale hydrological model and, for one severely impacted river basin (the Thames), a detailed analysis of flood inundation and the increased number of residential properties placed at risk. One climate model ensemble represents the range of possible weather under the current climate, while 11 alternative ensembles represent the weather as it could have been had past emissions not occurred. The pooled ensemble results show that emissions are likely to have increased the chance of occurrence of these floods across much of the country, with a stronger influence on longer duration peaks (similar to 10 days or more) than for shorter durations (consistent with observations). However, there is substantial variation in results between alternative ensembles, with some suggesting likely decreases in the chance of flood occurrence, at least in some regions of the country. The influence on flows and property flooding varies spatially, due to both spatial variation in the influence on precipitation and variation in physical properties that affect the transformation of precipitation to river flow and flood impacts, including flood defences. This complexity highlights the importance of using hydrological modelling to attribute hydrological impacts from meteorological changes. Changes in snow occurrence in a warming climate are also shown to be important, with effects varying spatially. |
英文关键词 | climate change flooding inundation property damage |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000452430000011 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; RIVER FLOW ; RAINFALL ; UK ; ENGLAND ; UNCERTAINTY ; CATCHMENT ; FREQUENCY ; RISK |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/37000 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Maclean Bldg, Wallingford OX10 8BB, Oxon, England; 2.JBA Risk Management Ltd, Skipton, England; 3.JBA Trust, Skipton, England; 4.Univ Lancaster, Lancaster Environm Ctr, Lancaster, England; 5.CICERO Ctr Int Climate & Environm Res, Oslo, Norway; 6.Univ Oxford, Environm Change Inst, Oxford, England; 7.Univ Oxford, Oxford E Res Ctr, Oxford, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kay, Alison L.,Booth, Naomi,Lamb, Rob,et al. Flood event attribution and damage estimation using national-scale grid-based modelling: Winter 2013/2014 in Great Britain[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2018,38(14):5205-5219. |
APA | Kay, Alison L.,Booth, Naomi,Lamb, Rob,Raven, Emma,Schaller, Nathalie,&Sparrow, Sarah.(2018).Flood event attribution and damage estimation using national-scale grid-based modelling: Winter 2013/2014 in Great Britain.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,38(14),5205-5219. |
MLA | Kay, Alison L.,et al."Flood event attribution and damage estimation using national-scale grid-based modelling: Winter 2013/2014 in Great Britain".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 38.14(2018):5205-5219. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论