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DOI | 10.1002/joc.5727 |
Projected changes in summer precipitation over East Asia with a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model during 21st century | |
Woo, Sumin1; Singh, Gyan Prakash2; Oh, Jai-Ho1; Lee, Kyoung-Min3 | |
2018-10-01 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY |
ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 38期号:12页码:4610-4631 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | South Korea; India |
英文摘要 | We provide a broad view of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) precipitation and their changes in the 21st century under the representative concentration pathway RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios using a high-resolution (at 40 km) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). The simulated fields are validated against the multiple observational data sets in the reference period (1979-2008). Validation of seasonal simulated global climatology and EASM precipitation, annual cycle and various circulation fields including 25 individual Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and CMIP5 MME suggests that AGCM can be used to study the future projected characteristics of EASM. An investigation of uncertainty in precipitation shows larger values in the regions of high-precipitation belt and low terrain. Future projections are categorized as near (2010-2039), mid (2040-2069) and far (2070-2100) futures. The model projects an increased summer precipitation of about 3.2% (2.3%) in near future, about 4.5% (4.5%) in mid-future and about 2.4% (2.3%) in far future over East Asia region under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) scenarios when compared to the reference period. As far as regional landmasses are concerned, model projects a gradual increase in the range of 5-15% over northeast China, coastal regions of southern China, Korea and Japan regions and a decrease of about 5-10% over southeastern and northwest parts of East Asia during the 21st century. The projected increase of EASM can be attributed to an increase in atmospheric moistures (relative humidity) over the east coast of China, Korea and northeast China and north and northwestwards enhancement of eddy geopotential height. Extreme events are examined by using various precipitation indices over EASM regions. Results indicate that the indices of heavy precipitation are projected to increase (both frequency and intensity) over Korea, Japan and northeast China in the range of 5-20%, indicating strong sensitivity of EASM to global warming. |
英文关键词 | AGCM climate change EASM extreme precipitation events RCP scenarios |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000446279100020 |
WOS关键词 | REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL ; ASSESSING FUTURE CHANGES ; CMIP5 COUPLED MODELS ; STAND-ALONE RCM ; 20-KM MESH AGCM ; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY ; HORIZONTAL RESOLUTION ; GLOBAL PRECIPITATION ; TROPICAL CYCLONES ; WARMING CLIMATE |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36975 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Pukyong Natl Univ, Dept Environm & Atmospher Sci, 45 Yongso Ro, Busan 48513, South Korea; 2.Banaras Hindu Univ, Inst Sci, Dept Geophys, Varanasi, Uttar Pradesh, India; 3.CRAY Korea Inc, Seoul, South Korea |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Woo, Sumin,Singh, Gyan Prakash,Oh, Jai-Ho,et al. Projected changes in summer precipitation over East Asia with a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model during 21st century[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2018,38(12):4610-4631. |
APA | Woo, Sumin,Singh, Gyan Prakash,Oh, Jai-Ho,&Lee, Kyoung-Min.(2018).Projected changes in summer precipitation over East Asia with a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model during 21st century.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,38(12),4610-4631. |
MLA | Woo, Sumin,et al."Projected changes in summer precipitation over East Asia with a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model during 21st century".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 38.12(2018):4610-4631. |
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