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DOI | 10.1002/joc.5194 |
A seasonal prediction for the wet-cold spells leading to winter crop damage in northwestern Taiwan with a combined empirical-dynamical approach | |
Promchote, Parichart1; Wang, S. -Y. Simon1,2; Shen, Yuan3; Johnson, Paul G.1; Yao, Ming-Hwi4 | |
2018-02-01 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY |
ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 38期号:2页码:571-583 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Taiwan |
英文摘要 | Winter crop losses from extreme weather in Taiwan have increased in the recent decade, with those losses associated with pronounced wet-and-cold events (temperature < 10 degrees C and precipitation >5 mm day(-1)). The regional and global patterns of atmospheric circulation and the sea surface temperature (SST) related to the extreme cold that damages fruits, vegetables, and paddy rice in northwest Taiwan were investigated. Cool SST anomalies in the western North Pacific (WNP) and warm SST in the central-eastern Pacific associated with the Pacific meridional mode (PMM) shared a significant role in the occurrence of wet-and-cold events in northwest Taiwan. The interactions of the WNP/PMM with the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and the Central Pacific type of El Nino led to a pronounced lead-lag relationship with the occurrence of wet-and-cold events. An empirical model was subsequently developed to predict the wet-and-cold event frequency using observed values of WNP, Nino-3.4, and Arctic Oscillation from year-1 and predicted indices of WNP and PMM derived from the Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) outputs. The predictive skill of this hybrid empirical-dynamical model was statistically significant throughout the 6 months leading up to the occurrence of wet-and-cold events. |
英文关键词 | seasonal forecast wet-cold spells winter-crop damage CFSv2 climate diagnosis empirical-dynamical model Taiwan |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000423816900005 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM ; EAST-ASIAN CLIMATE ; INTERANNUAL VARIATION ; ARCTIC OSCILLATION ; NORTH PACIFIC ; MONSOON ; PRECIPITATION ; TEMPERATURE ; VARIABILITY ; RAINFALL |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36887 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Utah State Univ, Dept Plants Soils & Climate, 4820 Old Main Hill, Logan, UT 84322 USA; 2.Utah State Univ, Utah Climate Ctr, Logan, UT 84322 USA; 3.Natl Chung Hsing Univ, Dept Soil & Environm Sci, Taichung, Taiwan; 4.Agr Res Inst, Agr Engn Div, Taichung, Taiwan |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Promchote, Parichart,Wang, S. -Y. Simon,Shen, Yuan,et al. A seasonal prediction for the wet-cold spells leading to winter crop damage in northwestern Taiwan with a combined empirical-dynamical approach[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2018,38(2):571-583. |
APA | Promchote, Parichart,Wang, S. -Y. Simon,Shen, Yuan,Johnson, Paul G.,&Yao, Ming-Hwi.(2018).A seasonal prediction for the wet-cold spells leading to winter crop damage in northwestern Taiwan with a combined empirical-dynamical approach.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,38(2),571-583. |
MLA | Promchote, Parichart,et al."A seasonal prediction for the wet-cold spells leading to winter crop damage in northwestern Taiwan with a combined empirical-dynamical approach".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 38.2(2018):571-583. |
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