Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/joc.5399 |
Projected signals in climate extremes over China associated with a 2 degrees C global warming under two RCP scenarios | |
Sui, Yue1,2; Lang, Xianmei2,3,4; Jiang, Dabang2,3,4,5 | |
2018-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY |
ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 38页码:E678-E697 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | Using daily output from 29 climate models provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, we project signals in 12 extreme temperature indices and 12 extreme precipitation indices relative to 1986-2005 over China associated with a 2 degrees C global warming above pre-industrial levels under representative concentration pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) and 8.5 (RCP8.5). The model output reflects the following projected changes: (1) It is robust and statistically significant that warm extremes are more frequent, more persistent, and more intense than those during the baseline period of 1986-2005, and local signals emerge from natural internal variability over most of China. In particular, southern China faces severe heat stress in summer based on warm extreme indices. (2) It is robust and statistically significant that there are fewer cold extremes in China. Most models show no significant changes in the longest duration and intensity of most cold extremes in southern China and northwest China. (3) The multi-model median shows that more frequent and more intense wet extremes that deliver greater amounts of extreme precipitation occur in China, with a regional mean increase of 16.7-42.8 mm (8-42%) in total amount of annual wet extremes, but these changes are not significant and do not exceed natural internal variability over most of the country. Spatially, the Tibetan Plateau and northeast China have robust and significant changes in part of precipitation extremes, and some changes begin to emerge from natural internal variability at local scale. There are benefits to limiting global warming for China, including less frequent and less persistent warm extremes when comparing 1.5 degrees C with 2 degrees C of global warming and a later occurrence of significant changes in climate extremes when compared an intermediate mitigation scenario RCP4.5 with a high emission scenario RCP8.5. |
英文关键词 | 2 degrees C global warming temperature extremes precipitation extremes signals signal-to-noise ratio China |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000431999600046 |
WOS关键词 | SEA-LEVEL RISE ; PRECIPITATION EXTREMES ; MODEL PERFORMANCE ; TEMPERATURE ; CMIP5 ; INDEXES ; EMERGENCE ; SIMULATION ; EVENTS ; IMPACT |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36882 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.China Univ Geosci, Sch Environm Studies, Wuhan, Hubei, Peoples R China; 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Huayanli 40,POB 9804, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China; 3.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 4.CAS Ctr Excellence Tibetan Plateau Earth Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China; 5.Chengdu Univ Informat Technol, Joint Lab Climate & Environm Change, Chengdu, Sichuan, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sui, Yue,Lang, Xianmei,Jiang, Dabang. Projected signals in climate extremes over China associated with a 2 degrees C global warming under two RCP scenarios[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2018,38:E678-E697. |
APA | Sui, Yue,Lang, Xianmei,&Jiang, Dabang.(2018).Projected signals in climate extremes over China associated with a 2 degrees C global warming under two RCP scenarios.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,38,E678-E697. |
MLA | Sui, Yue,et al."Projected signals in climate extremes over China associated with a 2 degrees C global warming under two RCP scenarios".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 38(2018):E678-E697. |
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