Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/joc.5448 |
The seasons' length in 21st century CMIP5 projections over the eastern Mediterranean | |
Hochman, Assaf1,2,3; Harpaz, Tzvi1,2; Saaroni, Hadas2; Alpert, Pinhas1 | |
2018-05-01 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY |
ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 38期号:6页码:2627-2637 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Israel |
英文摘要 | The eastern Mediterranean (EM) is expected to be influenced by climate changes that will significantly affect ecosystems, human health and socio-economic aspects. One aspect of climate change in this vulnerable area is the length of the seasons, especially that of the rainy winter season against the warm and dry summer. Here, the synoptic seasons' definition of Alpert, Osetinsky, Ziv, and Shafir (2004a) was applied to an ensemble of eight Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models, under RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, to predict the changes in the lengths of EM seasons during the 21st century. It is shown that the ensemble adequately represents the annual cycle of the main synoptic systems over the EM. The analysis further suggests that at the end of the 21st century, the duration of the synoptic summer, characterized by the occurrence of the Persian Trough, is expected to be lengthened by 49%, while the synoptic winter, characterized by the occurrence of the Cyprus Low, is expected to be shortened by 56% under the RCP8.5 scenario. This may lead to substantial changes in the hydrological regime and water resources, reduce the potential of dry farming, increase the risk of fires and air pollution and change the timing of seasonal health hazards. |
英文关键词 | CMIP5 Cyprus Low Persian Trough Red Sea Trough season definition Sharav Low synoptic classification |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000437834500001 |
WOS关键词 | DAILY SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; RED-SEA ; STORM-TRACKS ; MIDDLE-EAST ; ISRAEL ; INFLUENZA ; DUST ; VARIABILITY ; REANALYSIS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36851 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Tel Aviv Univ, Sch Geosci, Dept Geophys, Tel Aviv, Israel; 2.Tel Aviv Univ, Sch Geosci, Dept Geog & Human Environm, Tel Aviv, Israel; 3.Tel Aviv Univ, Porter Sch Environm Studies, Sch Geosci, IL-69978 Tel Aviv, Israel |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Hochman, Assaf,Harpaz, Tzvi,Saaroni, Hadas,et al. The seasons' length in 21st century CMIP5 projections over the eastern Mediterranean[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2018,38(6):2627-2637. |
APA | Hochman, Assaf,Harpaz, Tzvi,Saaroni, Hadas,&Alpert, Pinhas.(2018).The seasons' length in 21st century CMIP5 projections over the eastern Mediterranean.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,38(6),2627-2637. |
MLA | Hochman, Assaf,et al."The seasons' length in 21st century CMIP5 projections over the eastern Mediterranean".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 38.6(2018):2627-2637. |
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