GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1002/joc.5150
A new method of multi-model ensemble to improve the simulation of the geographic distribution of the Koppen-Geiger climatic types
Wang, Leibin1,2; Rohli, Robert V.3; Yan, Xiaodong1,2; Li, Yafei1,2
2017-12-01
发表期刊INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN0899-8418
EISSN1097-0088
出版年2017
卷号37期号:15
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Peoples R China; USA
英文摘要

Multi-model ensembles (MMEs) have been demonstrated to be useful for improving the results of models. Furthermore, previous research suggests that weighted MMEs outperform unweighted multi-model results in climatological simulations, with the degree of difference in model performance dependent on the suitability of the weighting scheme. The goal of this research is to improve the results of MMEs by optimizing the weighting for each model for predicting the distribution of Koppen-Geiger climatic types. Results suggest that the correspondence between general circulation model- (GCM-) based and Climate Research Unit- (CRU-) based output of the geographic distribution of the Koppen-Geiger climatic types is inadequate for nine GCMs simulations, with only 40-52% of the total land area having agreement for the Koppen climatic type. An unweighted ensemble average GCM-based simulation produced only marginally improved model performance. However, the terrestrial area with disagreement between the MMEs and CRU was reduced to about 35% by using the nonlinear-weighted ensemble average. Inconsistent regions between the MMEs and CRU are concentrated along the climatic boundaries, confirming that ecotones are simulated poorly by these models. Because, the Koppen classification is designed so that climatic regions correspond to biomes, this research may have implications for improving simulation of agricultural, forestry, and other biotic realms under past and future climatic conditions.


英文关键词multi-model ensemble spatial distribution kappa statistic GCMs climate classification
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000416905900012
WOS关键词WORLD MAP ; CLASSIFICATION ; MODELS ; AGREEMENT ; EXTREMES ; IMPACTS ; PROJECTIONS ; EUROPE
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36816
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Beijing Normal Univ, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Room 811,JingShi Technol Bldg B,12 Xueyuannan Ave, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China;
2.Beijing Normal Univ, Fac Geog, Beijing, Peoples R China;
3.Louisiana State Univ, Dept Geog & Anthropol, Baton Rouge, LA 70803 USA
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GB/T 7714
Wang, Leibin,Rohli, Robert V.,Yan, Xiaodong,et al. A new method of multi-model ensemble to improve the simulation of the geographic distribution of the Koppen-Geiger climatic types[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2017,37(15).
APA Wang, Leibin,Rohli, Robert V.,Yan, Xiaodong,&Li, Yafei.(2017).A new method of multi-model ensemble to improve the simulation of the geographic distribution of the Koppen-Geiger climatic types.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,37(15).
MLA Wang, Leibin,et al."A new method of multi-model ensemble to improve the simulation of the geographic distribution of the Koppen-Geiger climatic types".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 37.15(2017).
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