Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/joc.5150 |
A new method of multi-model ensemble to improve the simulation of the geographic distribution of the Koppen-Geiger climatic types | |
Wang, Leibin1,2; Rohli, Robert V.3; Yan, Xiaodong1,2; Li, Yafei1,2 | |
2017-12-01 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY |
ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 37期号:15 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; USA |
英文摘要 | Multi-model ensembles (MMEs) have been demonstrated to be useful for improving the results of models. Furthermore, previous research suggests that weighted MMEs outperform unweighted multi-model results in climatological simulations, with the degree of difference in model performance dependent on the suitability of the weighting scheme. The goal of this research is to improve the results of MMEs by optimizing the weighting for each model for predicting the distribution of Koppen-Geiger climatic types. Results suggest that the correspondence between general circulation model- (GCM-) based and Climate Research Unit- (CRU-) based output of the geographic distribution of the Koppen-Geiger climatic types is inadequate for nine GCMs simulations, with only 40-52% of the total land area having agreement for the Koppen climatic type. An unweighted ensemble average GCM-based simulation produced only marginally improved model performance. However, the terrestrial area with disagreement between the MMEs and CRU was reduced to about 35% by using the nonlinear-weighted ensemble average. Inconsistent regions between the MMEs and CRU are concentrated along the climatic boundaries, confirming that ecotones are simulated poorly by these models. Because, the Koppen classification is designed so that climatic regions correspond to biomes, this research may have implications for improving simulation of agricultural, forestry, and other biotic realms under past and future climatic conditions. |
英文关键词 | multi-model ensemble spatial distribution kappa statistic GCMs climate classification |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000416905900012 |
WOS关键词 | WORLD MAP ; CLASSIFICATION ; MODELS ; AGREEMENT ; EXTREMES ; IMPACTS ; PROJECTIONS ; EUROPE |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36816 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Beijing Normal Univ, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Room 811,JingShi Technol Bldg B,12 Xueyuannan Ave, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China; 2.Beijing Normal Univ, Fac Geog, Beijing, Peoples R China; 3.Louisiana State Univ, Dept Geog & Anthropol, Baton Rouge, LA 70803 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wang, Leibin,Rohli, Robert V.,Yan, Xiaodong,et al. A new method of multi-model ensemble to improve the simulation of the geographic distribution of the Koppen-Geiger climatic types[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2017,37(15). |
APA | Wang, Leibin,Rohli, Robert V.,Yan, Xiaodong,&Li, Yafei.(2017).A new method of multi-model ensemble to improve the simulation of the geographic distribution of the Koppen-Geiger climatic types.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,37(15). |
MLA | Wang, Leibin,et al."A new method of multi-model ensemble to improve the simulation of the geographic distribution of the Koppen-Geiger climatic types".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 37.15(2017). |
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