Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/joc.5870 |
High-resolution regional climate model projections of future tropical cyclone activity in the Philippines | |
Gallo, Florian1; Daron, Joseph1; Macadam, Ian2; Cinco, Thelma3; Villafuerte, Marcelino, II3; Buonomo, Erasmo1; Tucker, Simon1; Hein-Griggs, David1,4; Jones, Richard G.1 | |
2019-03-15 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY |
ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 39期号:3页码:1181-1194 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England; Australia; Philippines |
英文摘要 | The Philippines is one of the most exposed countries in the world to tropical cyclones. In order to provide information to help the country build resilience and plan for a future under a warmer climate, we build on previous research to investigate implications of future climate change on tropical cyclone activity in the Philippines. Experiments were conducted using three regional climate models with horizontal resolutions of approximately 12 km (HadGEM3-RA) and 25 km (HadRM3P and RegCM4). The simulations are driven by boundary data from a subset of global climate model simulations from the CMIP5 ensemble. Here we present the experimental design, the methodology for selecting CMIP5 models, the results of the model validation, and future projections of changes to tropical cyclone frequency and intensity by the mid-21st century. The models used are shown to represent the key climatological features of tropical cyclones across the domain, including the seasonality and general distribution of intensities, but issues remain in resolving very intense tropical cyclones and simulating realistic trajectories across their life-cycles. Acknowledging model inadequacies and uncertainties associated with future climate model projections, the results show a range of plausible changes with a tendency for fewer but slightly more intense tropical cyclones. These results are consistent with the basin-wide results reported in the IPCC AR5 and provide clear evidence that the findings from these previous studies are applicable in the Philippines region. |
英文关键词 | climate projections regional climate model tropical cyclones |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000461606600003 |
WOS关键词 | INTENSITY ; CMIP5 ; SIMULATIONS ; VARIABILITY ; DEPENDENCE |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36801 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Met Off, Exeter, Devon, England; 2.UNSW Sydney, ARC Ctr Excellence Climate Extremes, Sydney, NSW, Australia; 3.Philippine Atmospher Geophys & Astron Serv Adm, Quezon City, Philippines; 4.Univ Exeter, Exeter, Devon, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Gallo, Florian,Daron, Joseph,Macadam, Ian,et al. High-resolution regional climate model projections of future tropical cyclone activity in the Philippines[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2019,39(3):1181-1194. |
APA | Gallo, Florian.,Daron, Joseph.,Macadam, Ian.,Cinco, Thelma.,Villafuerte, Marcelino, II.,...&Jones, Richard G..(2019).High-resolution regional climate model projections of future tropical cyclone activity in the Philippines.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,39(3),1181-1194. |
MLA | Gallo, Florian,et al."High-resolution regional climate model projections of future tropical cyclone activity in the Philippines".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 39.3(2019):1181-1194. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论