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DOI | 10.1002/joc.5315 |
Ensemble evaluation and projection of climate extremes in China using RMIP models | |
Niu, Xiaorui1,2,3; Wang, Shuyu1,2,3; Tang, Jianping1,2,3; Lee, Dong-Kyou4; Gutowski, William5; Dairaku, Koji6; McGregor, John7; Katzfey, Jack7; Gao, Xuejie8; Wu, Jia9; Hong, Song-you10; Wang, Yuqing11; Sasaki, Hidetaka12; Fu, Congbin1,2,3 | |
2018-03-30 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY |
ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 38期号:4页码:2039-2055 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; South Korea; USA; Japan; Australia |
英文摘要 | Under the framework of the Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project (RMIP III), simulation results from six regional climate models (RCMs) and two global climate models (GCMs) were used to generate climate extreme indices for the present and future over China using two ensemble methods. All the models reasonably captured the observed climate extremes, and performance-based ensemble averaging (PEA) outperformed the individual model and equal-weighted averaging (MME) for the control climate. However, noticeable cold deficiencies in temperature extremes were found over areas with complex topography, and too frequent heavy precipitation at smaller intensities was simulated using the multiple model ensembles. Under the A1B scenario for 2041-2060, widespread increases in the 90th percentiles of the maximum temperatures (Tmax90p) and the 10th percentile of the minimum temperatures (Tmin10p) were projected, with larger increases in winter than in summer. Greater intensities in precipitation extremes were projected over China, with the exception of Inner Mongolia. Large uncertainties exist in the projected mean diurnal temperature range (Trange), number of days with precipitation exceeding 10 mm (R10) and the maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD) because of disagreements in both the magnitudes and signs of the climate model projections, and even the two ensemble methods presented opposite signs over some regions. |
英文关键词 | multi-model ensemble performance-based ensemble averaging approach extreme temperature extreme precipitation |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000427011700032 |
WOS关键词 | FUTURE PRECIPITATION CHANGE ; EAST-ASIA ; PERFORMANCE ; INDEXES ; TRENDS ; PREDICTION ; FORECASTS ; SYSTEM |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36782 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Nanjing Univ, Inst Climate & Global Change Res, 163 Xianlin Rd, Nanjing 210046, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 2.Nanjing Univ, Sch Atmospher Sci, 163 Xianlin Rd, Nanjing 210046, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 3.Jiangsu Collaborat Innovat Ctr Climate Change, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 4.Seoul Natl Univ, Dept Earth & Environm Sci, Seoul, South Korea; 5.Iowa State Univ, Dept Geol & Atmospher Sci, Ames, IA USA; 6.Natl Res Inst Earth Sci & Disaster Prevent, Dept Integrated Res Disaster Risk Reduct Div, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; 7.CSIRO, Marine & Atmospher Res, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; 8.Inst Atmospher Phys, Climate Change Res Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China; 9.China Meteorol Adm, Natl Climate Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China; 10.Korea Inst Atmospher Predict Syst, Seoul, South Korea; 11.Univ Hawaii, Int Pacific Res Ctr, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA; 12.Meteorol Res Inst, Atmospher Environm & Appl Meteorol Res Dept, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Niu, Xiaorui,Wang, Shuyu,Tang, Jianping,et al. Ensemble evaluation and projection of climate extremes in China using RMIP models[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2018,38(4):2039-2055. |
APA | Niu, Xiaorui.,Wang, Shuyu.,Tang, Jianping.,Lee, Dong-Kyou.,Gutowski, William.,...&Fu, Congbin.(2018).Ensemble evaluation and projection of climate extremes in China using RMIP models.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,38(4),2039-2055. |
MLA | Niu, Xiaorui,et al."Ensemble evaluation and projection of climate extremes in China using RMIP models".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 38.4(2018):2039-2055. |
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