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DOI | 10.1002/joc.5065 |
Future warming rates over the Hawaiian Islands based on elevation-dependent scaling factors | |
Timm, Oliver Elison | |
2017-08-01 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY |
ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 37 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Regional climate change scenarios are important for understanding their impacts on environments of oceanic islands. This study presents a statistical method that estimates elevation-dependent warming rates for the Hawaiian Islands. The downscaling is facilitated by two important aspects found in the climate change scenarios produced by general circulation models. First, climate model simulations show a strong relationship between height and amplitude of the temperature change over the northern subtropical Pacific. Second, the ratio between the upper air temperature and the surface temperature change is independent of the global warming rate. This information is exploited to produce high-resolution maps with the expected range of future temperature changes for the Hawaiian Islands by the mid and late 21st century. The expected surface warming and its uncertainty is analysed with an ensemble of global climate scenarios for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5). It is found that the highest mountain elevations warm by a factor 1.5 +/- 0.2 compared with the ambient surface temperature anomalies at the sea level. In scenario RCP8.5, high elevations above 3000m reach up to 4-5 degrees C warmer temperatures by the late 21st century. The uncertainty due to multi-model ensemble spread is overall larger than the statistical downscaling uncertainty, except for the highest elevations where both contribute equally to the uncertainty range. For the late 21st century, however, the largest uncertainty stems from the choice of emission scenarios. |
英文关键词 | climate change statistical downscaling temperature Hawaii elevation-dependent warming subtropics |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000417298600073 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; AMERICAN CORDILLERA ; TEMPERATURE TRENDS ; MOUNTAIN REGIONS ; MODEL ; VARIABILITY ; RAINFALL ; ISSUE |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36761 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | SUNY Albany, Dept Atmospher & Environm Sci, 1400 Washington Ave ES 351, Albany, NY 12222 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Timm, Oliver Elison. Future warming rates over the Hawaiian Islands based on elevation-dependent scaling factors[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2017,37. |
APA | Timm, Oliver Elison.(2017).Future warming rates over the Hawaiian Islands based on elevation-dependent scaling factors.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,37. |
MLA | Timm, Oliver Elison."Future warming rates over the Hawaiian Islands based on elevation-dependent scaling factors".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 37(2017). |
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