Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/joc.5252 |
Projected changes in mean rainfall and temperature over East Africa based on CMIP5 models | |
Ongoma, Victor1,2,3; Chen, Haishan1,2; Gao, Chujie1,2 | |
2018-03-15 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY |
ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 38期号:3页码:1375-1392 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; Kenya |
英文摘要 | This study presents potential future variations of mean rainfall and temperature over East Africa (EA) based on five models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and representative concentration pathways (RCPs): 4.5 and 8.5. In this study, climate simulations of two timeframes, a baseline period (1961-1990) and projection period (2071-2100), are compared. The models reproduce EA's bimodal rainfall pattern but overestimate and underestimate seasonal rainfall of October-December (OND) and March-May (MAM), respectively. Rainfall is projected to increase under the two scenarios. Larger increases in rainfall will occur during the OND season than during the MAM season and in RCP8.5 than in RCP4.5. During the last half of the 21st century, EA is likely to warm by 1.7-2.8 and 2.2-5.4 degrees C under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, relative to the baseline period. Scenario uncertainty is projected to exceed model uncertainty from the middle to the end of the 21st century. The central parts of Kenya and the Lake Victoria Basin will witness the highest increases in seasonal rainfall. The probability density functions (PDFs) of future seasonal rainfall show a positive shift and a statistically insignificant increase in variance relative to the baseline. Thus, EA is likely to experience an increase in extreme rainfall events. Understanding the future climate variability in EA is important for planning purposes but these results are based on relatively course resolution models prone to bias and therefore should be used with caution. There is a need for further research on climate projections over EA, including determining the causes of the poor performance of global models in reproducing rainfall climatology and trends over the region. |
英文关键词 | climate projection rainfall temperature CMIP5 East Africa |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000426729300020 |
WOS关键词 | SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; GREATER HORN ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; INDIAN-OCEAN ; SHORT RAINS ; LONG RAINS ; 2005 DROUGHT ; VARIABILITY ; PRECIPITATION ; TRENDS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36755 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.NUIST, CIC FEMD, Key Lab Meteorol Disaster, Minist Educ KLME, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 2.NUIST, Int Joint Res Lab Climate & Environm Change ILCEC, Ningliu Rd 219, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 3.South Eastern Kenya Univ, Dept Meteorol, Kitui, Kenya |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ongoma, Victor,Chen, Haishan,Gao, Chujie. Projected changes in mean rainfall and temperature over East Africa based on CMIP5 models[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2018,38(3):1375-1392. |
APA | Ongoma, Victor,Chen, Haishan,&Gao, Chujie.(2018).Projected changes in mean rainfall and temperature over East Africa based on CMIP5 models.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,38(3),1375-1392. |
MLA | Ongoma, Victor,et al."Projected changes in mean rainfall and temperature over East Africa based on CMIP5 models".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 38.3(2018):1375-1392. |
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