资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

The precipitation over arid regions may be low, but its environmental impacts can be very dramatic. The decadal variability in precipitation can also effectively disturb climatic environmental regimes. To advance the understanding of precipitation variability over arid regions, this paper focuses on decadal variability in summer precipitation over arid northwest China and its associated atmospheric circulations, using observation-based data and atmospheric reanalysis during the period 1961-2016. The results show that climatologically, precipitation over this region has a strong seasonality and that 60.2% falls in summer. The summer precipitation increased 15.5 mm, accounting for 52.4% of the total annual increase in this part of China from 1961 to 2016. Decadal changes in summer precipitation occurred in approximately 1991 with a north-south difference structure modulated by large-scale circulation anomalies over the Indian Ocean and central Asia as well as a shift in water vapour transport. In a positive phase, anticyclonic circulation anomalies occupy the Indian Ocean with cyclonic anomalies over central Asia, favouring stronger northwards moisture transport towards northwest China, and vice versa. Moreover, the significantly enhanced northwards water vapour transport from low-latitude seas is also critical to the decadal changes approximately in 1991 summer precipitation in arid northwest China. These findings contribute to the understanding of decadal precipitation variability over arid regions, especially the increasing influence of low-latitude circulations and moisture transport processes.