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DOI | 10.1002/joc.5046 |
Evaluating climate model simulations of drought for the northwestern United States | |
Abatzoglou, John T.1; Rupp, David E.2 | |
2017-08-01 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY |
ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 37 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Projected changes in regional characteristics of drought throughout the 21st century can help inform climate change assessments across drought-sensitive sectors. However, the ability of global climate models (GCMs) to reproduce statistical attributes of observed drought at regional scales has not typically been considered. We present a framework for evaluating the fidelity of GCMs to simulate regional drought to help guide model selection for users of regional climate projections where drought plays a key climate impact, and elucidate shortcomings of model simulations of hydroclimate variability. Monthly precipitation (Pr) and potential evapotranspiration (ETo) from 24 GCMs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 were compared to observations, with a focus on the northwestern United States (NWUS), using a suite of statistics for capturing multi-scalar aspects of drought and both supply (Pr) and atmospheric demand (ETo). Model fidelity was generally higher for drought metrics evaluated with ETo versus Pr, and for seasonal and annual time scales versus multi-year time scales. While some GCMs performed well across the suite of drought metrics and time scales, models systematically underestimated the severity of regional drought in the NWUS defined by precipitation deficits, particularly for multi-year time scales. |
英文关键词 | drought climate models northwestern United States |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000417298600061 |
WOS关键词 | PACIFIC-NORTHWEST ; TRENDS ; PROJECTIONS ; BIASES |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36725 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Idaho, Dept Geog, 875 Perimeter Dr, Moscow, ID 83844 USA; 2.Oregon State Univ, Coll Earth Ocean & Atmospher Sci, Oregon Climate Change Res Inst, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Abatzoglou, John T.,Rupp, David E.. Evaluating climate model simulations of drought for the northwestern United States[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2017,37. |
APA | Abatzoglou, John T.,&Rupp, David E..(2017).Evaluating climate model simulations of drought for the northwestern United States.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,37. |
MLA | Abatzoglou, John T.,et al."Evaluating climate model simulations of drought for the northwestern United States".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 37(2017). |
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