资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Tajikistan is an exceptionally vulnerable Central Asian country in the face of climate change due to its' high exposure and sensitivity to climate change combined with poor adaptation capacity. Therefore, comprehensive climate data are needed for efficient planning of mitigation and adaptation. Here, the key spatio-temporal features of Tajikistan's climate were analysed based on historical data from 52 stations with the longest time-series covering nearly 80 years. In addition, bias-corrected CMIP5 climate models were used to simulate future temperature and precipitation conditions across a range of time periods and greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The results show that the mean annual temperatures have risen in Tajikistan since the 1930s, average rate of change being approximately 0.1 degrees C decade(-1). For precipitation, only a weak signal of change could be detected. The high-resolution (30 arc seconds) spatial analyses reveal the strong control of topography on Tajikistan's climate with such coupling leading mean annual air temperatures to vary from -13.7 degrees C (eastern mountain regions) to 17.3 degrees C (low-altitude plains). Similarly, the mean annual precipitation vary from less than 50 mm to over 1000 mm, spring being the wettest of the seasons. The future climate simulations suggest drastic increase in air temperatures; at the end of this century the temperature multi-model mean can be approximately 2 degrees C (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP2.6) to 7 degrees C (RCP8.5) higher compared to 1961-1990. Precipitation scenarios indicate increase in the eastern part of the country and decrease in the west. Finally, the applied spatial uncertainty analyses stress the need for the future development of the climate station network especially in high-elevation areas associated with complex topography. These results show the pronounced climatic variation in Tajikistan and the expected near- and long-term changes in air temperature and precipitation conditions, thus forming a sound basis for future planning of national mitigation and adaptation activities.