Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/joc.5486 |
Criteria to evaluate the validity of multi-model ensemble methods | |
Zhang, Xianliang1; Yan, Xiaodong2 | |
2018-06-30 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
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ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 38期号:8页码:3432-3438 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | Multi-model ensemble (MME) methods have been developed to improve upon the simulations of individual general circulation models. Their performances can be evaluated using metrics such as correlation and root-mean-square error, between the simulations and observations. However, most metrics change with the length of the calibration period, meaning the skill of MME methods in simulating future climate change is poorly known. In the present work, an order preservation criterion and a boundary preservation criterion are proposed to guarantee the reliability of MME simulations in the future. The order preservation criterion makes every model contribute a positive value to the MME simulations, while the boundary preservation criterion restricts the range of variation in the MME simulations. Four commonly used MME methods are evaluated based on these two criteria. The results show that the multiple linear regression method and singular value decomposition method are unsuitable MME methods in most situations. However, the arithmetic ensemble mean and Bayesian model averaging can be used to combine model simulations. The two criteria proposed in this study provide a simple way to evaluate the validity of MME methods. |
英文关键词 | Bayesian model averaging boundary preservation criterion multi-model ensemble multiple linear regression order preservation criterion |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000439793900016 |
WOS关键词 | PRECIPITATION FORECASTS ; PREDICTION SKILL ; CLIMATE ; SIMULATIONS ; COMBINATION ; PROJECTIONS ; RATIONALE ; SUCCESS ; WEATHER |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36632 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Shenyang Agr Univ, Coll Forestry, Shenyang, Liaoning, Peoples R China; 2.Beijing Normal Univ, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Beijing, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhang, Xianliang,Yan, Xiaodong. Criteria to evaluate the validity of multi-model ensemble methods[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2018,38(8):3432-3438. |
APA | Zhang, Xianliang,&Yan, Xiaodong.(2018).Criteria to evaluate the validity of multi-model ensemble methods.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,38(8),3432-3438. |
MLA | Zhang, Xianliang,et al."Criteria to evaluate the validity of multi-model ensemble methods".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 38.8(2018):3432-3438. |
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