GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1002/joc.5486
Criteria to evaluate the validity of multi-model ensemble methods
Zhang, Xianliang1; Yan, Xiaodong2
2018-06-30
发表期刊INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN0899-8418
EISSN1097-0088
出版年2018
卷号38期号:8页码:3432-3438
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Peoples R China
英文摘要

Multi-model ensemble (MME) methods have been developed to improve upon the simulations of individual general circulation models. Their performances can be evaluated using metrics such as correlation and root-mean-square error, between the simulations and observations. However, most metrics change with the length of the calibration period, meaning the skill of MME methods in simulating future climate change is poorly known. In the present work, an order preservation criterion and a boundary preservation criterion are proposed to guarantee the reliability of MME simulations in the future. The order preservation criterion makes every model contribute a positive value to the MME simulations, while the boundary preservation criterion restricts the range of variation in the MME simulations. Four commonly used MME methods are evaluated based on these two criteria. The results show that the multiple linear regression method and singular value decomposition method are unsuitable MME methods in most situations. However, the arithmetic ensemble mean and Bayesian model averaging can be used to combine model simulations. The two criteria proposed in this study provide a simple way to evaluate the validity of MME methods.


英文关键词Bayesian model averaging boundary preservation criterion multi-model ensemble multiple linear regression order preservation criterion
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000439793900016
WOS关键词PRECIPITATION FORECASTS ; PREDICTION SKILL ; CLIMATE ; SIMULATIONS ; COMBINATION ; PROJECTIONS ; RATIONALE ; SUCCESS ; WEATHER
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36632
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Shenyang Agr Univ, Coll Forestry, Shenyang, Liaoning, Peoples R China;
2.Beijing Normal Univ, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Zhang, Xianliang,Yan, Xiaodong. Criteria to evaluate the validity of multi-model ensemble methods[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2018,38(8):3432-3438.
APA Zhang, Xianliang,&Yan, Xiaodong.(2018).Criteria to evaluate the validity of multi-model ensemble methods.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,38(8),3432-3438.
MLA Zhang, Xianliang,et al."Criteria to evaluate the validity of multi-model ensemble methods".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 38.8(2018):3432-3438.
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