Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/joc.5394 |
Long-term rainfall regression surfaces for the Kruger National Park, South Africa: a spatio-temporal review of patterns from 1981 to 2015 | |
MacFadyen, Sandra1,2; Zambatis, Nick3; Van Teeffelen, Astrid J. A.2; Hui, Cang4 | |
2018-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
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ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 38期号:5页码:2506-2519 |
文章类型 | Review |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | South Africa; Netherlands |
英文摘要 | As an important bottom-up driver of ecosystem processes, rainfall is intrinsically linked to the dynamics of vegetation and species distributions through its effects on soil moisture content and surface water availability. Rainfall effects are thus spatially and temporally specific to different environmental role-players. Knowledge of its spatio-temporal pattern is therefore essential to understanding natural ecosystem flux and potential climate change effects. Climate change poses a serious threat to protected areas in particular, as they are often isolated in fragmented landscapes and confined within hard park boundaries. In consequence, a species' natural movement response to resulting climate-induced niche shifts is often obstructed. Long-term, accurate and consistent climate monitoring data are therefore important resources for managers in large protected areas like the Kruger National Park (Kruger). In this article we model local rainfall measurements as a function of global rainfall surfaces, elevation and distance to the ocean using a generalized additive mixed effects model to produce fine-scale (1 km(2)) monthly rainfall surfaces from July 1981 to June 2015. Results show a clear seasonal cycle nested within an oscillating multi-decadal trend. Most noticeably, seasonality is shifting both temporally and spatially as rainfall moves outside of the typical dry/wet periods and areas. In addition, high-rainfall seasons are generally receiving more rainfall while low-rainfall seasons are receiving less. Northwestern regions of the park are experiencing more extreme annual rainfall differences, while far northern and southern regions show greater seasonality changes. The well-described north-south and east-west rainfall gradient is still visible but the spatial complexity of this pattern is more pronounced than expected. Taken together, we show that Kruger's spatio-temporal rainfall patterns are changing significantly in the short to medium term. The resulting raster data set is made freely available to promote holistic ecosystem studies and support longer-term climate change research. |
英文关键词 | rainfall protected area spatio-temporal generalized additive mixed effects model seasonality change free raster data set |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000428880600027 |
WOS关键词 | SPATIAL INTERPOLATION ; SABIE RIVER ; CLIMATE ; FIRE ; HETEROGENEITY ; TEMPERATURES ; DRIVERS ; EXAMPLE ; AREAS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36610 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Stellenbosch Univ, Dept Bot & Zool, Stellenbosch, South Africa; 2.Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, Environm Geog Grp, Amsterdam, Netherlands; 3.South African Natl Parks, Conversat Management, Skukuza, South Africa; 4.Stellenbosch Univ, African Inst Math Sci, Dept Math Sci, Stellenbosch, South Africa |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | MacFadyen, Sandra,Zambatis, Nick,Van Teeffelen, Astrid J. A.,et al. Long-term rainfall regression surfaces for the Kruger National Park, South Africa: a spatio-temporal review of patterns from 1981 to 2015[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2018,38(5):2506-2519. |
APA | MacFadyen, Sandra,Zambatis, Nick,Van Teeffelen, Astrid J. A.,&Hui, Cang.(2018).Long-term rainfall regression surfaces for the Kruger National Park, South Africa: a spatio-temporal review of patterns from 1981 to 2015.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,38(5),2506-2519. |
MLA | MacFadyen, Sandra,et al."Long-term rainfall regression surfaces for the Kruger National Park, South Africa: a spatio-temporal review of patterns from 1981 to 2015".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 38.5(2018):2506-2519. |
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