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DOI | 10.1002/joc.5414 |
Future changes in extreme precipitation indices over Korea | |
Kim, Gayoung1; Cha, Dong-Hyun1; Park, Changyong1; Lee, Gil1; Jin, Chun-Sil2; Lee, Dong-Kyou3; Suh, Myoung-Seok4; Ahn, Joong-Bae5; Min, Seung-Ki6; Hong, Song-You7; Kang, Hyun-Suk8 | |
2018-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
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ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 38页码:E862-E874 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | South Korea |
英文摘要 | In this study, the regional climate of the Korean Peninsula is dynamically downscaled using a high-resolution regional climate model forced by two representative concentration pathway scenarios of Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 2-Atmosphere and Ocean (HadGEM2-AO) using multiple regional climate models. Changes in extreme precipitation indices are investigated. Through the evaluation of the present climate, a multi-model ensemble reasonably reproduces the long-term climatology of extreme precipitation indices over South Korea despite some systematic errors. Both mean and extreme precipitation intensities for 80 years in the future (2021-2100) increase compared to those of the present. However, the increasing rates of indices related to precipitation intensities are different according to sub-period, season, and emission scenarios. Mean and extreme precipitation intensities of the future climate increase during the summer when most extreme precipitation events occur over the Korean Peninsula. Also, abnormal extreme precipitation can increase during future summers due to increasing variances of indices related to extreme precipitation intensity. Increasing extreme summer precipitation over South Korea is proportional to the increases in convective precipitation compared to non-convective precipitation. This indicates that future changes in summer precipitation, with regard to intensity and frequency, over South Korea, among representative concentration pathway scenarios, are more related to a change in convective instability rather than synoptic condition. |
英文关键词 | climate change extreme precipitation South Korea regional climate model STARDEX multi-RCM HadGEM2-AO |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000431999600058 |
WOS关键词 | REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS ; SOUTH-KOREA ; SUMMER PRECIPITATION ; STATISTICAL-METHODS ; PROJECTIONS ; SIMULATION ; RESOLUTION ; FLOOD ; PERFORMANCE ; CHALLENGES |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36607 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Ulsan Natl Inst Sci & Technol, Ulsan, South Korea; 2.Korea Inst Nucl Safety, Daejeon, South Korea; 3.Korea Meteorol Adm, Seoul, South Korea; 4.Kongju Natl Univ, Gongju, South Korea; 5.Pusan Natl Univ, Busan, South Korea; 6.Pohang Univ Sci & Technol, Pohang, South Korea; 7.Korea Inst Atmospher Predict Syst, Seoul, South Korea; 8.Natl Inst Meteorol Sci, Seogwipo, South Korea |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kim, Gayoung,Cha, Dong-Hyun,Park, Changyong,et al. Future changes in extreme precipitation indices over Korea[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2018,38:E862-E874. |
APA | Kim, Gayoung.,Cha, Dong-Hyun.,Park, Changyong.,Lee, Gil.,Jin, Chun-Sil.,...&Kang, Hyun-Suk.(2018).Future changes in extreme precipitation indices over Korea.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,38,E862-E874. |
MLA | Kim, Gayoung,et al."Future changes in extreme precipitation indices over Korea".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 38(2018):E862-E874. |
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