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DOI | 10.1002/joc.4928 |
Assessment of future ENSO changes in a CMIP3/CMIP5 multi-model and multi-index framework | |
Keupp, Luzia1; Pollinger, Felix2; Paeth, Heiko2 | |
2017-06-30 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY |
ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 37期号:8 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Germany |
英文摘要 | As main mode of interannual climate variability with worldwide teleconnections, El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) holds high ecological, economical and social relevance. So far, studies on future ENSO changes draw a rather incoherent picture across climate models and ENSO indices. Here, we assess climate change signals and respective uncertainties in the frequency and variance of ENSO events using a comprehensive multidimensional approach: 10 different ENSO indices based on five climate variables and derived from four CMIP3 and nine CMIP5 models are investigated and compared systematically. Finally, one dimension of the problem (of various indices and various models as well as realizations) is removed by combining the 10 ENSO indices to a single 'super'-index, defined in the Empirical Orthogonal Function space. The most common signal across models and indices is found to be an increase of year-to-year variability of ENSO events until the end of our century, especially in the combined index. A significant strengthening in frequency occurs only in terms of La Nina events in some indices, whereas El Nino events appear to be barely sensitive to radiative forcing during the 21st century. This study highlights the importance of taking a more holistic multi-model and multi-index viewpoint when assessing future changes in ENSO behaviour and addressing higher-moment characteristics of ENSO. |
英文关键词 | climate change ENSO CMIP3 CMIP5 Multi-model ensemble ENSO indices |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000404852400010 |
WOS关键词 | NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION ; TROPICAL PACIFIC-OCEAN ; EARTH SYSTEM MODEL ; EL-NINO ; DECADAL VARIABILITY ; CLIMATE MODEL ; CMIP5 ; AMPLITUDE ; TELECONNECTIONS ; UNCERTAINTIES |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36591 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Deutsch Wetterdienst, Satellite Based Climate Monitoring, Offenbach, Germany; 2.Univ Wurzburg, Inst Geog & Geol, D-97074 Wurzburg, Germany |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Keupp, Luzia,Pollinger, Felix,Paeth, Heiko. Assessment of future ENSO changes in a CMIP3/CMIP5 multi-model and multi-index framework[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2017,37(8). |
APA | Keupp, Luzia,Pollinger, Felix,&Paeth, Heiko.(2017).Assessment of future ENSO changes in a CMIP3/CMIP5 multi-model and multi-index framework.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,37(8). |
MLA | Keupp, Luzia,et al."Assessment of future ENSO changes in a CMIP3/CMIP5 multi-model and multi-index framework".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 37.8(2017). |
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