Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-016-3076-9 |
Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 1 (JMA/MRI-CPS1) for operational seasonal forecasting | |
Takaya, Yuhei1; Yasuda, Tamaki1; Fujii, Yosuke2; Matsumoto, Satoshi2; Soga, Taizo3; Mori, Hirotoshi1; Hirai, Masayuki1; Ishikawa, Ichiro1; Sato, Hitoshi1; Shimpo, Akihiko1; Kamachi, Masafumi2; Ose, Tomoaki2 | |
2017 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 48 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Japan |
英文摘要 | This paper describes the operational seasonal prediction system of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), the Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 1 (JMA/MRI-CPS1), which was in operation at JMA during the period between February 2010 and May 2015. The predictive skill of the system was assessed with a set of retrospective seasonal predictions (reforecasts) covering 30 years (1981-2010). JMA/MRI-CPS1 showed reasonable predictive skill for the El Nio-Southern Oscillation, comparable to the skills of other state-of-the-art systems. The one-tiered approach adopted in JMA/MRI-CPS1 improved its overall predictive skills for atmospheric predictions over those of the two-tiered approach of the previous uncoupled system. For 3-month predictions with a 1-month lead, JMA/MRI-CPS1 showed statistically significant skills in predicting 500-hPa geopotential height and 2-m temperature in East Asia in most seasons; thus, it is capable of providing skillful seasonal predictions for that region. Furthermore, JMA/MRI-CPS1 was superior overall to the previous system for atmospheric predictions with longer (4-month) lead times. In particular, JMA/MRI-CPS1 was much better able to predict the Asian Summer Monsoon than the previous two-tiered system. This enhanced performance was attributed to the system's ability to represent atmosphere-ocean coupled variability over the Indian Ocean and the western North Pacific from boreal winter to summer following winter El Nio events, which in turn influences the East Asian summer climate through the Pacific-Japan teleconnection pattern. These substantial improvements obtained by using an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model underpin its success in providing more skillful seasonal forecasts on an operational basis. |
英文关键词 | Seasonal prediction Coupled model ENSO Asian monsoon |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000392307300018 |
WOS关键词 | SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; GENERAL-CIRCULATION MODEL ; ASIAN WINTER MONSOON ; WESTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC ; 1997-98 EL-NINO ; INDIAN-OCEAN ; CLIMATE PREDICTABILITY ; ATMOSPHERIC BRIDGE ; SOUTHERN-OSCILLATION ; EQUATORIAL PACIFIC |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36561 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Japan Meteorol Agcy, Chiyoda Ku, 1-3-4 Otemachi, Tokyo 1008122, Japan; 2.Meteorol Res Inst, 1-1 Nagamine, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3050052, Japan; 3.Univ Tsukuba, Fac Med, 1-1-1 Tennodai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058575, Japan |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Takaya, Yuhei,Yasuda, Tamaki,Fujii, Yosuke,et al. Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 1 (JMA/MRI-CPS1) for operational seasonal forecasting[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2017,48. |
APA | Takaya, Yuhei.,Yasuda, Tamaki.,Fujii, Yosuke.,Matsumoto, Satoshi.,Soga, Taizo.,...&Ose, Tomoaki.(2017).Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 1 (JMA/MRI-CPS1) for operational seasonal forecasting.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,48. |
MLA | Takaya, Yuhei,et al."Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 1 (JMA/MRI-CPS1) for operational seasonal forecasting".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 48(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论