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DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aaa4a4 |
Increasing crop production in Russia and Ukraine-regional and global impacts from intensification and recultivation | |
Deppermann, Andre1; Balkovic, Juraj1,2; Bundle, Sophie-Charlotte1; Di Fulvio, Fulvio1; Havlik, Petr1; Leclere, David1; Lesiv, Myroslava1; Prishchepov, Alexander V.3,4; Schepaschenko, Dmitry1,5 | |
2018-02-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 13期号:2 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Austria; Slovakia; Denmark; Russia |
英文摘要 | Russia and Ukraine are countries with relatively large untapped agricultural potentials, both in terms of abandoned agricultural land and substantial yield gaps. Here we present a comprehensive assessment of Russian and Ukrainian crop production potentials and we analyze possible impacts of their future utilization, on a regional as well as global scale. To this end, the total amount of available abandoned land and potential yields in Russia and Ukraine are estimated and explicitly implemented in an economic agricultural sector model. We find that cereal (barley, corn, and wheat) production in Russia and Ukraine could increase by up to 64% in 2030 to 267 million tons, compared to a baseline scenario. Oilseeds (rapeseed, soybean, and sunflower) production could increase by 84% to 50 million tons, respectively. In comparison to the baseline, common net exports of Ukraine and Russia could increase by up to 86.3 million tons of cereals and 18.9 million tons of oilseeds in 2030, representing 4% and 3.6% of the global production of these crops, respectively. Furthermore, we find that production potentials due to intensification are ten times larger than potentials due to recultivation of abandoned land. Consequently, we also find stronger impacts from intensification at the global scale. A utilization of crop production potentials in Russia and Ukraine could globally save up to 21 million hectares of cropland and reduce average global crop prices by more than 3%. |
英文关键词 | abandoned land yield potentials Russia Ukraine agricultural sector model |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000425019300001 |
WOS关键词 | CARBON SEQUESTRATION ; WHEAT PRODUCTION ; ABANDONMENT ; DYNAMICS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36540 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Ecosyst Serv & Management Program, Schlosspl 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria; 2.Comenius Univ, Dept Soil Sci, Fac Nat Sci, Bratislava 84215, Slovakia; 3.Univ Copenhagen, Dept Geosci & Nat Resource Management IGN, Oster Voldgade 10, DK-1350 Copenhagen K, Denmark; 4.Kazan Fed Univ, Inst Environm Sci, Tovarishcheskaya Str 5, Kazan 420097, Russia; 5.Bauman Moscow State Tech Univ, Mytishchi 141005, Russia |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Deppermann, Andre,Balkovic, Juraj,Bundle, Sophie-Charlotte,et al. Increasing crop production in Russia and Ukraine-regional and global impacts from intensification and recultivation[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,13(2). |
APA | Deppermann, Andre.,Balkovic, Juraj.,Bundle, Sophie-Charlotte.,Di Fulvio, Fulvio.,Havlik, Petr.,...&Schepaschenko, Dmitry.(2018).Increasing crop production in Russia and Ukraine-regional and global impacts from intensification and recultivation.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,13(2). |
MLA | Deppermann, Andre,et al."Increasing crop production in Russia and Ukraine-regional and global impacts from intensification and recultivation".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 13.2(2018). |
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