Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aabc60 |
Projected changes in tropical cyclones over the South West Indian Ocean under different extents of global warming | |
Muthige, M. S.1,2; Malherbe, J.1; Englebrecht, F. A.1,2; Grab, S.2; Beraki, A.1; Maisha, T. R.1; Van der Merwe, J.1 | |
2018-06-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 13期号:6 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | South Africa |
英文摘要 | The Paris Agreement achieved in December 2015 established that the signatory countries should pursue to hold the increase in global average temperature to below 2 degrees C relative to the preindustrial period and to strive to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees C below the preindustrial period. The potential changes in tropical cyclones over the basin making landfall over southern Africa under the key global temperature goals have not been thoroughly investigated. Using the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment-Africa regional climate models, we downscale six global climate models of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 to high resolution. This serves towards studying changes in tropical cyclone tracks over the South West Indian Ocean under different extents of global warming (1.5 degrees C, 2 degrees C and 3 degrees C of warming with respect to pre-industrial conditions). It is projected that the number of tropical cyclones making landfalls over southern Africa under global warming will decrease, with 2 degrees C being a critical threshold, after which the rate of cyclone frequency with further temperature increases no longer has a diminishing effect. Fewer cyclones may bring benefits and reduce damage to the southern African region. Although a decrease in damages associated with flood events is desirable, general decreases in tropical cyclone and tropical lows may also be associated with decreased rainfall over the Limpopo River basin and southern, central and northern Mozambique (with negative impacts on dryland agriculture). |
英文关键词 | tropical cyclones global warming precipitation |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000435851500001 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE ; INTENSITY ; SENSITIVITY ; SST |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36532 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.CSIR Nat Resources & Environm, Climate Studies Modelling & Environm Hlth, ZA-0001 Pretoria, South Africa; 2.Univ Witwatersrand, Sch Geog Archeol & Environm Studies, ZA-2050 Johannesburg, South Africa |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Muthige, M. S.,Malherbe, J.,Englebrecht, F. A.,et al. Projected changes in tropical cyclones over the South West Indian Ocean under different extents of global warming[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,13(6). |
APA | Muthige, M. S..,Malherbe, J..,Englebrecht, F. A..,Grab, S..,Beraki, A..,...&Van der Merwe, J..(2018).Projected changes in tropical cyclones over the South West Indian Ocean under different extents of global warming.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,13(6). |
MLA | Muthige, M. S.,et al."Projected changes in tropical cyclones over the South West Indian Ocean under different extents of global warming".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 13.6(2018). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论