GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/aace64
Range-wide variation in the effect of spring snow phenology on Dall sheep population dynamics
van de Kerk, Madelon1; Verbyla, David2; Nolin, Anne W.3; Sivy, Kelly J.1; Prugh, Laura R.1
2018-07-01
发表期刊ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN1748-9326
出版年2018
卷号13期号:7
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
英文摘要

Understanding the underlying mechanisms of species distributions and range limits is critical to predicting species responses to climate change. The relationship between climate factors and population performance is often assumed to be constant across species' ranges, but factors that limit the persistence and abundance of species may vary spatially. We examined the consistency of climate effects on population performance across the global range of Dall sheep (Ovis dalli dalli) in northwestern North America. Using a linear mixed modeling approach, we evaluated the effects of temperature, precipitation, and snow cover on rates of lamb recruitment, which is a key measure of population performance. We used snow cover products derived from NASA's moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery and gridded climate data as predictors. Lamb recruitment rates were estimated using range-wide aerial survey data from2000-2015. These consisted of 127 833 records of sheep sightings from 1570 surveys conducted in 24 mountain units over an area of 634 271 km(2). MODIS-derived spring snow cover had stronger effects on lamb recruitment than did temperature or precipitation. Lamb recruitment increased with higher spring snowline elevations, earlier snow disappearance dates, and fewer snow-covered days per year, while the strength of these effects increased strongly with latitude. Simple population models indicate that, based on elasticity estimates, population growth would be reduced by 2% in years with late snow disappearance dates at intermediate northern latitudes, and by 5% at high latitudes. These results suggest that northern Dall sheep populations are more sensitive to changing snow conditions than their southern counterparts. In addition, variable relationships between climatic factors and population performance should be accounted for when modeling species distributions and projecting climate-induced range shifts.


英文关键词Dall sheep Ovis dalli dalli latitude species distribution models snow
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000438495600001
WOS关键词MODELING SPECIES DISTRIBUTIONS ; HIGH-LATITUDE ECOSYSTEMS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; NORTHERN ALASKA ; OVIS-DALLI ; HABITAT SELECTION ; GENETIC-STRUCTURE ; AIR-TEMPERATURE ; ENVELOPE MODELS ; SIZE
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
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文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36531
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Univ Washington, Sch Environm & Forest Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA;
2.Univ Alaska Fairbanks, Sch Nat Resources & Extens, Fairbanks, AK 99775 USA;
3.Oregon State Univ, Coll Earth Ocean & Atmospher Sci, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA
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GB/T 7714
van de Kerk, Madelon,Verbyla, David,Nolin, Anne W.,et al. Range-wide variation in the effect of spring snow phenology on Dall sheep population dynamics[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,13(7).
APA van de Kerk, Madelon,Verbyla, David,Nolin, Anne W.,Sivy, Kelly J.,&Prugh, Laura R..(2018).Range-wide variation in the effect of spring snow phenology on Dall sheep population dynamics.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,13(7).
MLA van de Kerk, Madelon,et al."Range-wide variation in the effect of spring snow phenology on Dall sheep population dynamics".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 13.7(2018).
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