Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aace64 |
Range-wide variation in the effect of spring snow phenology on Dall sheep population dynamics | |
van de Kerk, Madelon1; Verbyla, David2; Nolin, Anne W.3; Sivy, Kelly J.1; Prugh, Laura R.1 | |
2018-07-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 13期号:7 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Understanding the underlying mechanisms of species distributions and range limits is critical to predicting species responses to climate change. The relationship between climate factors and population performance is often assumed to be constant across species' ranges, but factors that limit the persistence and abundance of species may vary spatially. We examined the consistency of climate effects on population performance across the global range of Dall sheep (Ovis dalli dalli) in northwestern North America. Using a linear mixed modeling approach, we evaluated the effects of temperature, precipitation, and snow cover on rates of lamb recruitment, which is a key measure of population performance. We used snow cover products derived from NASA's moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery and gridded climate data as predictors. Lamb recruitment rates were estimated using range-wide aerial survey data from2000-2015. These consisted of 127 833 records of sheep sightings from 1570 surveys conducted in 24 mountain units over an area of 634 271 km(2). MODIS-derived spring snow cover had stronger effects on lamb recruitment than did temperature or precipitation. Lamb recruitment increased with higher spring snowline elevations, earlier snow disappearance dates, and fewer snow-covered days per year, while the strength of these effects increased strongly with latitude. Simple population models indicate that, based on elasticity estimates, population growth would be reduced by 2% in years with late snow disappearance dates at intermediate northern latitudes, and by 5% at high latitudes. These results suggest that northern Dall sheep populations are more sensitive to changing snow conditions than their southern counterparts. In addition, variable relationships between climatic factors and population performance should be accounted for when modeling species distributions and projecting climate-induced range shifts. |
英文关键词 | Dall sheep Ovis dalli dalli latitude species distribution models snow |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000438495600001 |
WOS关键词 | MODELING SPECIES DISTRIBUTIONS ; HIGH-LATITUDE ECOSYSTEMS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; NORTHERN ALASKA ; OVIS-DALLI ; HABITAT SELECTION ; GENETIC-STRUCTURE ; AIR-TEMPERATURE ; ENVELOPE MODELS ; SIZE |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36531 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Washington, Sch Environm & Forest Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA; 2.Univ Alaska Fairbanks, Sch Nat Resources & Extens, Fairbanks, AK 99775 USA; 3.Oregon State Univ, Coll Earth Ocean & Atmospher Sci, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | van de Kerk, Madelon,Verbyla, David,Nolin, Anne W.,et al. Range-wide variation in the effect of spring snow phenology on Dall sheep population dynamics[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,13(7). |
APA | van de Kerk, Madelon,Verbyla, David,Nolin, Anne W.,Sivy, Kelly J.,&Prugh, Laura R..(2018).Range-wide variation in the effect of spring snow phenology on Dall sheep population dynamics.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,13(7). |
MLA | van de Kerk, Madelon,et al."Range-wide variation in the effect of spring snow phenology on Dall sheep population dynamics".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 13.7(2018). |
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