Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aaa512 |
Does replacing coal with wood lower CO2 emissions? Dynamic lifecycle analysis of wood bioenergy | |
Sterman, John D.1; Siegel, Lori2; Rooney-Varga, Juliette N.3,4 | |
2018 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 13期号:1 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Bioenergy is booming as nations seek to cut their greenhouse gas emissions. The European Union declared biofuels to be carbon-neutral, triggering a surge in wood use. But do biofuels actually reduce emissions? A molecule of CO2 emitted today has the same impact on radiative forcing whether it comes from coal or biomass. Biofuels can only reduce atmospheric CO2 over time through post-harvest increases in net primary production (NPP). The climate impact of biofuels therefore depends on CO2 emissions from combustion of biofuels versus fossil fuels, the fate of the harvested land and dynamics of NPP. Here we develop a model for dynamic bioenergy lifecycle analysis. The model tracks carbon stocks and fluxes among the atmosphere, biomass, and soils, is extensible to multiple land types and regions, and runs in approximate to 1s, enabling rapid, interactive policy design and sensitivity testing. We simulate substitution of wood for coal in power generation, estimating the parameters governing NPP and other fluxes using data for forests in the eastern US and using published estimates for supply chain emissions. Because combustion and processing efficiencies for wood are less than coal, the immediate impact of substituting wood for coal is an increase in atmospheric CO2 relative to coal. The payback time for this carbon debt ranges from 44-104 years after clearcut, depending on forest type-assuming the land remains forest. Surprisingly, replanting hardwood forests with fast-growing pine plantations raises the CO2 impact of wood because the equilibrium carbon density of plantations is lower than natural forests. Further, projected growth in wood harvest for bioenergy would increase atmospheric CO2 for at least a century because new carbon debt continuously exceeds NPP. Assuming biofuels are carbon neutral may worsen irreversible impacts of climate change before benefits accrue. Instead, explicit dynamic models should be used to assess the climate impacts of biofuels. |
英文关键词 | bioenergy biofuels wood pellets greenhouse gas emissions climate change system dynamics |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000423175900001 |
WOS关键词 | FOREST BIOMASS ; CARBON ; POLICY ; GROWTH |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36503 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.MIT, Sloan Sch Management, 100 Main St, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA; 2.Climate Interact, 1201 Connecticut Ave NW,Suite 300, Washington, DC 20036 USA; 3.UMass Lowell Climate Change Initiat, 265 Riverside St, Lowell, MA 01854 USA; 4.Dept Environm Earth & Atmospher Sci, 265 Riverside St, Lowell, MA 01854 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sterman, John D.,Siegel, Lori,Rooney-Varga, Juliette N.. Does replacing coal with wood lower CO2 emissions? Dynamic lifecycle analysis of wood bioenergy[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,13(1). |
APA | Sterman, John D.,Siegel, Lori,&Rooney-Varga, Juliette N..(2018).Does replacing coal with wood lower CO2 emissions? Dynamic lifecycle analysis of wood bioenergy.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,13(1). |
MLA | Sterman, John D.,et al."Does replacing coal with wood lower CO2 emissions? Dynamic lifecycle analysis of wood bioenergy".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 13.1(2018). |
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